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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 9 preview: 'Bag of Tricks'

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Can we expect another famous Survivor "red herring" episode this week? After the colossal Tribal Council two weeks ago that saw Kass flip on her alliance to vote out Sarah, last week was all smoke and mirrors. It was a pretty straight-forward vote to get rid of Morgan, although the episode tried to ramp up the drama as much as it could.

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Where we currently stand moving into tonight's episode, is a tribe of nine remaining contestants. The "majority" alliance currently in power consists of Tony, LJ, Trish, Woo, Jefra and the recently defected Kass. On the outs you have former Brains Spencer and Tasha, along with Jeremiah still clinging to hope. Sarah and Morgan are the two current jury members.

The CBS Video preview (also at left of this column) features Jeff Probst giving a somewhat important-sounding Tribal lecture, asking the remaining players about things like the value of loyalty. It also strongly suggests that our current majority tribe of six isn't all that solid and that paranoia may tear the group apart. Will Tony be the one to shake things up, as he has done the entire season? Or will it be someone less expected, like Woo or Trish, or even (gasp!) Kass again?

We also know that Spencer currently has what is being called a "normal" Immunity Idol and that thus far, nobody else knows he has it. The reason his Idol is being called "normal," is because there is still a yet-to-be-introduced "Super Idol" that will likely come into play, although its special powers have yet to be revealed.

So that sets the stage for Episode 9. Here is the synopsis given to us by our friends at CBS:

Episode 9: “Bag of Tricks” - ONE CASTAWAY’S PARANOIA COULD LEAD TO A GAME-CHANGING FLIP, ON “SURVIVOR,” WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16. One castaway’s paranoia could lead to a game-changing flip, and a grade-school memory challenge looks more like a college exam for several exhausted castaways, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 16 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Analysis. If history serves us correctly, we have entered into that predictable stretch of episodes that usually follow the first merge episode. With Spencer, Tasha and Jeremiah in the minority, common sense should tell us that it will be one of these three who will be sent home tonight.

Spencer's hidden Idol most definitely may come into play if he doesn't win Immunity again, so it would take an epic blunder for us to see Spencer leave tonight. If the six stay strong though, they now have the opportunity to split up their votes - three and three - to flush any potential Idols and cause a tie and a re-vote situation, to ensure that they send home one of the three: Spencer, Tasha or Jeremiah.

Also, it is highly unlikely that we see the "Super Idol" tonight, or one would think that the preview would be heavily hyping this new twist.

So the question becomes: Who feels as if they are on the bottom of the alliance of six? Tony just had a few votes thrown his way and is shown as being overly paranoid. We also know his style of play. Could Tony be the one to flip and if so, who is he most likely to flip on? The other likely candidate is Kass. The newly formed six would be putting a massive amount of trust into her to remain loyal, but she really would be throwing away any chance of winning the game if she were to flip - again - and piss off the other half of the island.

While Tony has grown closer to LJ (who is in turn solid with Jefra), could this be the week that both former Brawn members, Woo and Trish, sense they are on the bottom and attempt to do something about it?

Let's hope for some fireworks tonight...but don't be fooled into thinking that there will be some. There's really no great reason that we know of why the six just wouldn't suck it up and get rid of one of the expected targets: Tasha or Jeremiah. Of these two, Jeremiah may be the one to go, since he may be seen as more of an individual, physical threat.

What do you think will happen? Sound off in the comment section!

How This Works: As the Survivor Examiner, you can expect an episode preview every Wednesday morning detailing the upcoming episode and getting you up to speed in case you missed anything from the previous week. Then later on Wednesday night, expect my full episode recap followed by a separate analysis article.

And that's not all. Every Thursday, you can join me for my exclusive one-on-one exit interview with each voted off castaway. Join me tomorrow for more exclusive interviews!

Of course to make things easy on you, you can either Subscribe to the Survivor Examiner (click "subscribe" above by my name at the top of this article) to get emailed all new articles or you can follow me on Twitter, @tomsantilli. I happen to be a film critic too, so let me know what you think of my film reviews each week as well!

Last but certainly not least, make sure you check out one of my favorite Survivor sites, Survivor Fever.

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