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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 12 preview: 'Havoc to Wreak'

The blindsides just keep coming this season on "Survivor: Cagayan." On the heels of Jefra's surprise exit, we are now down to just six contestants and two episodes remaining before the two-hour Season Finale on May 21.

'Survivor: Cagayan' Episode 12.
'Survivor: Cagayan' Episode 12.
Photo courtesy of Screen Grab/CBS ©2014 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. Used with permission.
'Survivor: Cagayan' Episode 12.
Photo courtesy of Screen Grab/CBS ©2014 CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. Used with permission.

Yes, it has all come down to six: Tony, Spencer, Tasha, Kass, Trish and Woo. One of these six will be crowned the Sole Survivor. Are all six deserving in your eyes? If not, who isn't?

Tony seems to be the only shoe-in to at least reach the Finale, which will begin with four players remaining. He has a "normal" Immunity Idol as well as the "Special Idol" that allows him to play it after the votes have been read. In past seasons, Idols have not been allowed at Final Four, so he has no reason not to play both of them over the next two episodes. Interestingly though, if he can win Individual Immunity, he could then use his Idols in other ways, to help shape his ideal Final Three.

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Heading into tonight, while Tony is ultimately safe (assuming he doesn't make a historically awful mistake by not playing his Idols), he isn't exactly what you would call popular. Along with Woo, Tony blindsided Jefra last week, unbeknownst to his allies Trish and Kass. It's now the second time Tony has gone rogue, removing someone from the game without letting his closest allies in on it. As President Bush once famously butchered: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...look, you can't fool me twice."

What will the fall-out be from Tony's second strike with Trish and Kass? Here's what CBS says we are in store for tonight:

Episode 12 – “Havoc to Wreak” - DURING AN INTENSE CHALLENGE CASTAWAYS ATTEMPT TO CRACK THE CODE AND EARN A SPOT IN THE FINAL FIVE, ON “SURVIVOR,” WEDNESDAY, MAY 7. During an intense challenge, castaways attempt to crack the code and earn a spot in the final five. Additionally, one castaway’s paranoia threatens another’s stake in the game, and Tony’s closest confidant is wooed by another alliance, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, May 7 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Analysis. You have to like the "wooed" comment, in reference of course, to Woo. Yes clearly Kass and (presumably) Trish are no longer going to trust Tony, but they'd be foolish not to come around eventually. That is, unless they plan on blindsiding him. It seems that Woo gets recruited to go against Tony, which is odd if you consider that Woo voted along with Tony each time he went against the group. The others clearly - and correctly - see that Tony is the head of the proverbial snake. The others could see this as their time to strike at Tony, who has played a ruthless, aggressive and impressive game thus far, but who has also created some enemies along the way. His game has been so thoroughly awesome though, you would think that he has enough credentials to win despite a bitter jury, but crazier things have happened.

As always, the Individual Immunity Necklace becomes increasingly important the deeper we get in the season. One would think that if Tasha doesn't win, that she would be the number one target of the others, who would probably want to strike against her while they have the chance. If Tony is able to win it, that would prevent any sort of coup against him plus would allow him to use his Idol on someone else to ensure maximum havoc. But if Tasha wins Immunity again, who is the likely target?

Even Tony can't be so near-sighted to want to get rid of Kass, even if he threatens to vote for her in last week's video preview. Kass is toxic and doesn't seem well liked, so at this point in the game, she has to be every single player's ideal candidate to take with them to the end. I find it hard to believe that Kass would become Tony's true target, but man has he grown paranoid. Something really tells me that Tony's ultimate plan is to sit next to Trish and Woo in the end though, which could mean Spencer becomes his target for tonight's episode.

So to me, all signs point to Tasha as the number one person who the others need to go home, not Tony. If they attempt to go after Tony tonight - which may very well happen - we the viewer know that it will only end bad for everyone but Tony due to his Idols.

How This Works: As the Survivor Examiner, you can expect an episode preview every Wednesday morning detailing the upcoming episode and getting you up to speed in case you missed anything from the previous week. Then later on Wednesday night, expect my full episode recap followed by a separate analysis article.

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