This week's polls of Michigan's voters opened with the Detroit News releasing a poll on Tuesday that showed Willard Mitt Romney within three percentage points of Barack Obama. Obama led with 47.7% to Romney's 45.0%. The previous Detroit News poll had Obama leading 49% to Romney's 42.3%.
Based on the change in their poll, the Detroit News trumpeted the result as showing that "Romney is within striking distance of Obama in Michigan" and quoted Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., who conducted the poll for the News, about the meaning of the results. "Mitt Romney's numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week. But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?"
According to five polls released later in the week, which reported Obama leads ranging from five percent to eight percent, the answer to Czuba's question appears to be "No."
On Wednesday, Michigan poller Epic-MRA published the results of their comprehensive poll of the state. They reported 48% supporting Obama and 42% supporting Romney for an Obama lead of six percent. The poll also showed 4% planning to vote for one of the other three candidates on the ballot, while six percent declined to state.
Public Policy Polling also released a poll on Wednesday. Their survey showed an eight point lead for Obama, with 53% supporting Obama to 45% supporting Romney. Another poll of theirs was released on Friday. This version included undecideds and reported a six point Obama margin, with 52% saying they'd vote for Obama to 46% for Romney with 2% undecided.
Also on Friday, Rasmussen Reports issued their findings. They reported that Obama had the support of 52% of the responders to Romney's 47%, an Obama lead of five percent. One percent said they were voting for a third party candidate, while another one percent were still undecided.
The final poll also came out on Friday. It was conducted by Grove Insight for US Action and Project New America and showed Obama ahead of Romney by seven points, 48% to 41%, with 2% voting for other candidates and 9% undecided.
All of the polls show Obama leads greater than their margins of error.
Not only does Obama have a lead in all four polls, Epic-MRA reported that his supporters in Michigan are both more enthusiastic, loyal, and optimistic than Romney's. Of the Obama supporters polled, 78% said they were enthusiastic about voting for him in contrast to 75% of Romney's. Also, 94% of likely Obama voters had ruled out voting for Romney, while 92% of Romney's supporters had ruled out voting for Obama. Finally, 84% of Democrats think that Obama will be re-elected in contrast to 74% of Republicans thinking Romney will be victorious.
Independents also expect Obama to win, with 43% expecting his re-election to 33% undecided and 24% projecting Romney. Overall, 50% of all Michigan voters think that Obama will win the election, while 34% expect that Romney will earn a victory.
To give an exclamation point to the answer of "No" to Czuba's asking if Romney would be able to catch up to Obama in Michigan, Nate Silver of the New York Times currently gives Obama a 98.5% chance of winning the state.
Comments