Prior threats issued by North Korea have always been viewed by political analysis as a way to keep North Korea unjust demands in the worlds spot light and cover up its human rights violations which their government’s dictatorships have created alone. Yet this time something in the way North Korea has taken a stance is different. In what is now viewed as an escalation in their threats North Korea has chosen to cancel the frayed armistice that has existed for sixty years, this act of nullifying the armistice in place should be viewed as a declaration of war in of itself. To further strain international relations North Korea has chosen to turn off their crisis hot line which connects them directly to South Korea, as well as threaten a preemptive nuclear attack against the United States. A threat of a nuclear strike by any nation with the heartless intent on arbitrarily killing millions of innocent people without any real thought put behind its intended significance has raised a new level of disquieting concern about the true intent of the new regimes long term goals. In response to North Korea’s recent threats China has implemented its own sanctions against North Korea, which signals to the world as well as North Korea that China is growing weary of North Korea actions. China is well aware that its economy is now directly tied to a global economy and a war between North and South Korea has the potential of derailing China’s desire to become another world super power in the eyes of its western neighbors. Nevertheless this new restlessness expressed by North Korea may force China to reconsider its military and political obligations to North Korea. It is now obvious to the world that by North Korea actions alone China is not only being used as a shield but more as a pawn in a deadly game geared for war. As such China is no longer making the international decisions directly for China, it is North Korea that is running China from afar and eventually if North Korea pushes to far, China under present arrangements will be forced to support North Korea in a war. In reality North Korea’s threats aimed at South Korea and the United States have also directly threaten the people of China, potentially making China’s North Korean pawn in a potential war!
A problem with sanctions! Traditionally the hope of using sanctions against a belligerent nation such as North Korea or Iran is that the nation they are imposed upon will eventually be forced to comply with the world’s demands. In the past the worlds has responded to North Korea's demand in two different ways, by either giving them more aide or placing new sanctions against them. This sort of mixed response is in part why the world is now seeing an intensification of threats displayed by North Korea. By agreeing to their threatening terms it is a submission to another’s demands under duress and encourages if not rewards the antagonist behavior. Sanctions on the other hand have the potential of having two separate yet opposite affects. Nations in which sanctions are imposed against them can sometimes further their resolve to become more defiant, they may inwardly justify their original stance. History has shown us that there are those when faced with sanctions against their own country they can and will become more determined if not belligerent in their resolve. On the hand sanctions although viewed as a remedy to deter a nation’s conduct can also be viewed by the aggressor as a weakness by those who imposed them. Without any meaningful dialogue in the interim the indifferent aggressor maybe pushed closer towards a war time stance. It takes two minds of reason willing to listen to reason to resolve one’s difference.
North Korea, human rights violations range from starvation of its own people to family imprisonment camps for life, North Korea’s government has maintain control by treating its own citizens for generations as a disposable commodity. For those who live in North Korea they are the ones that realize the significance of the power their government holds over them and this control over time has given North Korea's present day leaders a false sense of the power they hold. If the people within North Korea can be controlled by fear reason would dictate why not the outside world as well. North Korea has learned fear is and has power! Power is control and it demands no limits placed upon it and eventually not even China will be able to control North Korea’s goals as the way things presently stand! If the forgoing statement is true in any part then who by any stretch of the imagination is the ultimate pawn? Is it the nation that makes the threats and eventually brings a war upon themselves or is it the nation that responds to the aggressor’s war?
On the flip side of the argument some believe it is China that is pushing North Korea towards a final show down with South Korea. As noted previously a war in this region of the world would allow the United States to upgrade its military presents in that hemisphere and in addition a war would slow China's economic dynamo which China has grown dependent upon
If a war was to pursue the causalities to South Korea could quickly mount into the millions, for just south of the DMZ is Seoul surrounded by Lncheon and Gyeonggi province, with a combined population of 25.6 million people. Economically speaking any disruption of commerce to this area would have a far reaching effect on the world’s commerce just now emerging from the recession.
From the United States stand point of view any attack on South Korea by North Korea will force an immediate retaliatory response from the United States. Such a response will drag China into the war to support it long term ally, North Korea. By the United States and China both becoming involved in a war trade between both countries would quickly become restrictive, creating another global problem as America defers it trade deficit to China. In war there are no winners just a reorganization of property lines in time marked by blood. To compound today's escalating concerns a new leader has emerged in North Korea to guide the country, an untried anxious 29 year old named Kim Jong-un who was been raised by the hand of those of who have signified total obedience to its prior leaders, leaving him little room to understand the art of sound negotiation’s. It is therefore possible he desires to end a war that he may view as having been unjust or outdo his predecessors by engaging into a war. It’s hard to predict what he may do, but recent threats of such magnitude as North Korea has recently made should never be ignored, particularly when made by a fool!
There are always options to problems that need to be explored. One option is in the event North Korea creates another war is the United States and China would remove North Korea's leadership and re divide North Korea, ending an endless war.
The plan in this case would be that if North Korea was the aggressor China would sweep down from the North and South Korea and its forces would move up from the South to squelch the existing regime. At a pre-determined parallel all activities would cease and new boarders would be formed. This would allow China's influence to expand as well as South Korea's and end the uncertainty to a war in that particular region of the world. From China's perspective this shift of temporary boundaries would allow the United States the opportunity to downsize its military in the region, not remove it forces entirely until all aspects of the agreement have been met. The only catch would be after so many years the country would have the right to unify itself. What is interesting about this option although high improbable is that it would force North Korea to reevaluate the direction it has chosen to follow, something that sanctions have failed to do, but more importantly it would eliminate any possibility of a Third World War in the region. From a political and business stand point of view it would seem to make sense. Has this scenario been implemented before? Not exactly, however following the collapse of Germany in World War Two, Britain, France, Russia and the United States divided up Germany during the reconstruction period. The only holdout was Russia’s reluctance to re unite the country, highlighted by the building of the Berlin Wall, but even that did not stand in the way of unifying the country in the end.
Whatever the outcome maybe as to the future of North Korea it is obvious that someday they will go too far and deliberately or accidently start a war that may not be so easily stopped, unless there is an alternative plan in position prior to a war.
Update, what is interesting about this article is that within hours after it being published Google analytic confirmed multiple hits on this article alone from China. For the average reader in China this article would normally be blocked by China's censorship of the web, so the question is who in China is reading what? It is also apparently China's censors are sensitive to how the world perceives its involvement in the North Korean conflict or maybe they are just collecting data.
Edmund M. Dunn, reporting