Raleigh Weather Discussion
Today looks cool and dry across the Triangle with highs reaching into the upper 40s. A fast moving upper level system will pass by to the north of the region tomorrow but over North Carolina it looks to be mostly dry although a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will be warmer, warming into the upper 50s to low 60s across the Triangle both for Tuesday and Wednesday.
High pressure will build into the Northeast by Thursday and the models then differ a bit on the timing of the next system. Right now the best guess is that rain will spread in by Thursday afternoon/evening and continue overnight but likely end by Friday morning. The ECMWF is a little quicker and a little more intense with the rain for our area, while the GFS is less intense with the rain.
High pressure will build in for next weekend and as of now it looks dry with temperature slightly above normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s.
Then it turns very unsettled next week. A trough will lowly move through the southeast and this will lead to a 2-3 day period of increased moisture and unsettled weather. WE could see several rounds of rain move through with temperature very mild for mid-February mostly staying in the 50s and 60s. This could produce some good rainfall
National Extended/Long Range Weather
It does appear a colder pattern is ahead for the Rockies/Plains/Midwest as we see a strong –EPO ridge build in the Gulf of Alaska and also some above normal heights across the North Pole and into Greenland. However, for the east, the core of the cold at least in the 11-15 day period on today’s modeling will stay to the east. This could be a cold pattern again for areas like Denver, Boise, Minneapolis, Omaha, Des Moines, and maybe Chicago. But a persistent ridge axis near the Canadian Maritimes will help keep the axis of the trough across the central US.
For the east this means, I think we will see changeable, and unsettled weather, but the cold will not take a death grip. Of course this takes us up to around 2/20 or so, so we are running out of time for appreciable cold and winter weather in the east, and particularly the Southeast.