Organizations are already releasing polls ahead of the 2016 presidential election which show how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidate. The most recent poll, from Quinnipiac University, shows Clinton with at least a six point lead in the key swing state of Iowa. For more polling updates up through the 2016 presidential election follow this page on Twitter, Facebook, or subscribe through the link on the left.
The Overall Numbers
According to the Quinnipiac poll Clinton leads all the potential Republican challengers in North Carolina as seen below:
- Clinton (49 percent) versus former Gov. Jeb Bush (36 percent)
- Clinton (46 percent) versus Sen. Rand Paul (40 percent)
- Clinton (46 percent) versus former Gov. Mike Huckabee (39 percent)
- Clinton (44 percent) versus Gov. Chris Christie (36 percent)
- Clinton (47 percent) versus U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (41 percent)
What the Poll Means
Clinton's shows strength across the board against the more moderate Republican candidates like Christie as well as the more conservative candidates like Huckabee.
Iowa has votes Electoral College votes, which is relatively small compared to other swing states like Florida (29 votes). However, Iowa is still important as those six votes have gone to the winner of the last three presidential elections.
Indeed, in 2012 President Obama won Iowa versus Mitt Romney (Obama 51.99 percent to 46.18 percent for Mitt Romney) and still won the Electoral College by a 332-206 margin over Romney. The Quinnipiac poll shows a similar margin of victory for Clinton at the current time.
Comparison to Other Polls
The Quinnipiac poll falls well in line with another 2016 Iowa poll from Loras College released in early June which showed Clinton with an 8-12 point lead over all the potential Republican candidates.
A PPP poll from late May showed Clinton with a four point lead over Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee (her smallest lead) and a seven point lead over Sen. Ted Creuz (her largest margin).
Every poll is ultimately based on a sampling of potential voters. A number of factors can influence the poll's accuracy such as sample size and composition
In this poll Quinnipiac surveyed 1,277 registered voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.7 percent.
Of the poll's respondents, 27 percent identified themselves as Republican and 29 percent identified themselves as Democrats. The largest group, 40 percent, identified themselves as independents. These party identification breakdowns are not out of line at all in a state which has been closely contested in the last two presidential elections. A CNN exit poll in 2012 found that 33 percent of the state's vote identified as Democratic, with 33 percent identifying as Republican and 34 percent as independents.