Yesterday Quinnipiac released a poll which shows former Secretary f State Hillary Clinton with a large lead over all the major potential Republican challengers in the key battleground state of Ohio. According to the survey, Clinton's closest competitor in Ohio is Governor John Kasich (R-OH), who trails Clinton by five points (47 percent to 42 percent) in his home state. Here is a breakdown of the most recent poll showing, once again, that Clinton is the overwhelming favorite in 2016 should she decide to run. The breakdown includes an overview of the big results, a deeper look, and an analysis of the poll using internals and other polling data.
Besides leading Ohio's Governor by five points, the poll also shows Clinton leading all other potential Republican challengers by at least seven points:
- Clinton 48 percent versus 39 percent for former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL)
- Clinton 47 percent versus 40 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)
- Clinton 49 percent versus 41 percent for U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
- Clinton 46 percent versus versus 38 percent for Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)
- Clinton 48 percent versus 41 percent for U.S. Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI)
- Clinton 51 percent versus 37 percent for U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)
- Clinton 49 percent versus 41 percent for former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
A Deeper Look
The poll shows voters know Clinton well, with just three percent saying they "haven't heard enough" about the former First Lady, U.S. Senator, and Secretary of State. Of the 97 percent who have heard enough, 53 percent held a favorable view while 43 percent held an unfavorable view.
To give one an idea of Clinton's strenght, she is better known in Ohio than Governor Kasich, where 21 percent of the state's voters say they "haven't heard enough" about their own governor to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Of those who have heard of Kasich, only 47 percent hold a favorable viewpoint compared to Clinton's 53 percent favorability rating.
Across the board Republican candidates face the same challenge of being relatively unknown and unfavorably looked upon compared to Clinton. For example, the survey found 29 percent "haven't heard enough" about Jeb Bush, and just 32 percent of those who have heard enough have a favorable viewpoint.
- Survey taken from May 7 to May 12
- 1,174 registered voters
- Margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points
- 29% Republican
- 29% Democrat
- 35% Republican
- 8% Other
A CNN exit poll from 2012 found 38 percent of Ohio voters were Democrats, compared 31 percent Republican and 31 independent. Based on that data, the Quinnipiac poll may actually underestimate Clinton's strength by undersampling Democrats.
The survey did include both cell phone only and land line only users, which is more inclusive of voters who tend to vote Democrat. The survey's respondents were 84 percent white, 10 percent black, and 2 percent Hispanic. Once again, this sample may underestimate Clinton's strength. The CNN 2012 exit poll found that 79 percent of voters were white and 15 percent were African American. African American voters tend to vote Democrat.
The poll falls in line with other polls, released previously by Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling which have shown Clinton with a lead of anywhere from three to seventeen points over Republican challengers in Ohio. One poll, released in June of 2013, had Clinton tied with Chris Christie. However, since that time Christie has suffered from the effects of "Bridgegate" and Clinton has taken a fairly commanding lead.
There is little reason to doubt the validity of this poll, and it adds to the mountain of polling evidence which shows Clinton is the Electoral College favorite in 2016.