The Afghan military yesterday identified the rogue Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier who went ballistic and killed 3 British troops on Tuesday in Helmand province. It’s also been reported that members of Britain’s Special Forces, a group known as the SAS, are hot on the killer’s trail.
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The suspect, Talib Hussein, a 22 or 23-year old Hazara minority Shiite from the eastern province of Ghazni, shot the major in command of the base while the major was sleeping and killed the other two troops, a British lieutenant and a senior Gurkha soldier, by launching a rocket-propelled grenade into the patrol base operations room. After the killing spree Hussein went AWOL and later that day the Taliban announced that Hussein had surrendered to them and was now “in a safer place”.
The entire incident has magnified the trust issues that have always existed between the Afghan soldiers and their coalition mentors. Beyond trust, there are other issues NATO has had with the Afghan army, such as lack of skill sets, lack of desire and drug use. However, the biggest problem is the way the Afghan army is structured, because its ethnic breakdown will cause major clashes in the post-withdrawal world.
Mystery
The soldier’s identity was intriguing because the Hazaras were persecuted by the Taliban when the hard-liners ruled Afghanistan during their reign from 1996 to 2001. The Taliban are mostly ethnic Pashtun Sunnis who see Shiites as doctrinally impure. The Hazaras also have strong links with Iran but investigators haven’t yet found any connections.
Afghan officials believe Hussein took advantage of being on guard duty to arm himself with a number of weapons and may have chosen the operations room for the first attack to disable control. He then targeted the sleeping quarters and fled over a reinforced wall.
Hussein had been recruited only nine months earlier into the army and an initial probe uncovered that he was a habitual hashish smoker - a trait that is not uncommon among Afghan police and army personnel.
The governor of Helmand is quite convinced that the assailant couldn’t have done it alone and believes he must have been assisted by either the Taliban or foreign terrorists. However, UK Prime Minister David Cameron begged to differ and said that they are fairly certain the gunmen acted alone.
Trust
Can international forces - especially UK troops - ever fully trust Afghan army personnel going forward? According to an article by Kim Sengupta in The Independent, that is a tall order primarily because this isn’t the first time something like this has occurred. In November, five British soldiers were killed by an Afghan police officer they were training in Nad-e-Ali district. Some witnesses claimed the Afghan might have lashed out after being repeatedly reprimanded.
One unnamed soldier who was part of Hussein’s unit was quoted as saying:
"We know it was just one guy, but there was also just one guy at Nad-e-Ali. And between the two of them they killed a lot of people. You can't help wondering just how many nutters you have got out there. But, I have three months still to go and I can't spend every day looking over my shoulder."
Another soldier added:
"How do we feel about trusting the Afghans? Ask the Gurkhas. How can you trust them after what happened? We need to keep a loaded weapon with us at all times."
Desire
The issues with the national army go beyond trust and rampant drug use. There is also the issue of skill sets. A report card released earlier this year indicated the Afghan army was performing poorly and after $1 billion or more worth of U.S. investment in training programs, many of the Afghan soldiers still were not shooting their guns properly.
However, the fact that there is such a lack of skill even with all the training probably belies a deeper problem. According to an article in Foreign Policy in Focus by Hannah Gurman the Afghan's poor performance does not compute:
Surely, the Afghans, who have been at war for the past 28 years, and who have fought foreign occupation for hundreds of years before that, are not inherently lacking in military skills. One doesn't have to romanticize the Afghan warrior to concede that the technical ability should come fairly easily, so long as there is a will behind it.
She goes on to say that perhaps the question isn't why the average soldier isn't loyal to the ANA, but rather why should he be? The attitude of the average Afghan toward the central government is decidedly ambivalent. Once NATO withdraws it will be every tribe for itself because the central government is seen as corrupt and is supported by less than one-third of the population. The government in place today will be incapable of uniting the country.
Truth is Pashtuns are not signing up for the national army because they do not respect Hamid Karzai’s administration. Tribal structure is everything to Pashtuns and Karzai claims he comes from a highly ranked clan but, according to Pashtuns in Kandahar, it is actually not very well respected and does not carry the lineage to justify someone like Karzai as head of state.
According to a native Afghan analyst I spoke to, the ethnic breakdown of the Afghan army is a recipe for civil war. It is dominated by Tajiks from the North and is lacking a proportionate representation of Pashtuns, especially from the south - which is the home of the Taliban. Unofficial estimates have put the Tajiks at over 60% of the ANA while Pashtuns make up less than 20%, although the Pashtuns make up 40% of Afghanistan’s population and the Tajiks only 25%.
The Afghan analyst says once the international forces leave most of the ANA will break off to fend for themselves and all the Afghan ethnicities will form groups and battle lines will be drawn similar to the ones that existed during the civil wars of the past.
The analyst said the solution is elusive to the U.S. because it seems contradictory, but it’s more about the levels of complexity that exist in a tribal society. What is needed is a strong, unifying leader that all of the ethnicities can trust. Yet, what is not needed or wanted is a strong central government. The U.S. still doesn’t get that people from Afghanistan do not say “I am an Afghan” they say “I am a Pashtun” or “I am a Tajik”, etc. The tribes must be empowered. It is this fundamental misunderstanding by U.S. policymakers that has caused all these issues.
As far as the mad Hazara shooting Brits, my Afghan friend tells me that many Afghans can be bought and manipulated regardless of ethnicity. Or, we are just dealing with a lone nutter.
Comments
It is highly unlikely that the killer is a Hazara. As a Hazara myself, I simply can't imagine this to be true. In fact, the Karzai government, by now entirely run by radictal Pashtuns, is likely to have orchestrated this conspiracy to discredit Hazars in the eyes of NATO and allied forces/countries on one hand, and to convince western countries that taliban are not just a pashtun group but a group supported by most people in afghanistan( which is simply not true). Since, as ironic it may sound to most westerners, Karzai and his government, despite the will of all non-Pashtun people, want to bring the taliban back to power.
The fact of the matter is that even the Hazaras are starting to realize that Afghanistan is under occupation based on one of the biggest lies ever told: 911. As a Pashtun, rest assured that 99.9% of all real Pashtuns despise Karzai and his so-called 'radical' Pashtun ministers. The fact is that today's government is nothing more than a collection of cab drivers from the West and Communists from Afghanistan. There's not a single crime the Taliban have committed that members of today's government have not at some point in time. The Taliban may not have been a well-like group but they're a national resistance movement on the eyes of more and more Afghans. There's not a thing anyone can do about that. When u bring Commies and low lives to power, u get Taliban by your door again. The best solution is a total and withdrawal of all foreign forces, and a final civil war. A pile of cow s..t stuck to a Taliban's shoe is better than anyone in today's gov, so long as there's no Al Qaeda in Afg
It is true that the Pashtuns have inadequate representation from the southern Pashtun belt in non- commissioned officer level. However, Pashtun representation in the officer level even from the insecure southern region is quite fair. It is a ridiculous statement that the Tajiks constitute 60% in the Army and the Pashtuns 20%. Pashtuns and Tajiks representation is, more or less, proportionate to their estimated ethnic size. Pashtuns constitute over 42% and the Tajiks nearly 40%. However, after recent purge of the Army, the Pashtuns have dominated the army both in the Ministry of Defense and in the Army General Staff. Pashtuns domination in the Army will continue to entrench and that of the Tajik will decline in face of recent Pashtunization wave in Kabul. Hazara and Uzbek representation is less than 8% and 5% respectively let alone other smaller minorities. Army is the one institution in Afghanistan, about which credible data is available. The recent Helmand incident is deeply saddening
It's a conspiracy against the Hazaras by the Pashtuns has been designed by BBC Kabul Office Pashtun reporter.
I agree with the Amir- but we have to make sure Pakistan stays out of the fight and the people of Afghanistan would take care of Taliban - something that can unite the tribes and ethnicities is a common foe like the Taliban, who are actually the equivalent of foreigners born in Pakistan's western badlands - in my opinion. The U.S. should work w/ the tribal elders to peacefully remove the brothers Karzai, hold a loya jirga and vote for a new leader.
Batur- I don't think the Brits and Pashtuns have a very loving relationship.
Nazar- conspiracy theories give way too much credit to the parties involved. NATO is way too incompetent to pull off something like that.
The Pashtuns hate Karzai. My friend from Kandahar said that they need a unifying leader - someone in the mold of King Zahir Shah that all tribes and ethnicities woould accept.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Michael--Believe me, the Taliban r not a foreign force in Afghanistan. For god's sake don't believe the propoganda of scum bags who r the sole reason y Taliban were even allowed to breathe. I assure u that Pakis or Arabs or any other race in that region couldn't even think of Afg without Afghans allowing them to do so. Please understand that as undesirable it may b for many people to accept, the Taliban r Pashtun teenagers who have as much right to live in Afg as any of today's hot dog vendors of today's gov or the former s..t lickers of the Soviets. When u say Afgs would take care of the Taliban, please understand the Taliban R Afgs. The Taliban need to b convinced that NATO will leave and the tribal system b revived instantly. There's no doubt about that. They do not have anything in common with Al Qaeda bastards. As I said, as long as slaves of Soviet Union/Iran and cab drivers r in power, Taliban will continue to wage war n Al Qaeda is given a lifeline. Trust me, Taliban r Afgs.
Amir-
I may have taken the figurative a bit far in my comment. My thought is that the extreme form of sharia they learn originated in madrassas in Pakistan - well the Taliban leadership at least before mid-1990s when they rolled through the first time with Pakistan's assistance. To me the seeds of the extremist religious views come from the deobandi and Wahhabi forms of religion in Paki-funded and Saudi-funded madrassas. I just read a survey of 500 men in Helmand and Kandahar - 60% of them said they were in favor of education for women. I think Taliban might have to think twice about what they try to impose. They can believe whatever they want but I think it will be hard for them to impose extremist laws on the people, although I have also heard that Mullah Omar has moderated a bit in some of his policies (although they continue to target civilians - but that's part of tactical military strategy).
Michael,
Thank u for your responses and interest. I'm so glad U mentioned Wahhabi n Deobandi thoughts. I couldn't agree with u more esp about Wahhabism. I believe this is a cult who's sole purpose has been to destroy Islam and the Ottoman Empire from the day it was invented. I have written extensively about this death cult and I believe it is a cancer that has no fix other than annihilation. Thank god it's still very much an unacceptable cult even to the most radical Taliban of Afg. I do believe that most Pashtuns inc Taliban r forwomen's education. DuringTaliban rule, most of their own female relatives all attended some sort of schooling but they put up these rule for others for some reason that made no sense. One thing Im sure you're well aware of
is they had to do stupid stuff in order to insure continued financial support from Pakis
n Arab donors. I believe it's criminal to say the Taliban r not a nationalist group. This
is y people r dying everyday on both sides. Thx my f
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