With a price tag now estimated at a staggering $5.14 billion, extending Metrorail through Tysons Corner to Dulles International Airport has become the most expensive transit project in the nation, as well as the largest public works project in Virginia history.

It’s also become the most controversial — with enough backroom intrigue, high-stakes political deal making, official secrecy, conflict of interest and questionable legality to make Tony Soprano envious.

A group of wealthy Tysons landowners stand to make a windfall, but lots of other Northern Virginians won’t be so lucky.

Winners

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Dulles Transit Partners

A consortium consisting of mega-construction firms Bechtel and The Washington Group, DTP recently signed a no-bid contract with the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority — despite Bechtel’s history of shoddy work and massive cost overruns on Boston’s infamous “Big Dig.” MWAA officials said their decision was based on DTP’s “reasonable grounds for believing” it could finish the project on time and on budget. At more than $223 million per mile, this sweet deal is a contractor’s dream come true.

LEADER

The Landowners Economic Alliance for the Dulles Extension of Rail (LEADER) agreed to a special tax district to fund the county’s share of the rail project for one reason: Its members knew that 30 percent higher densities near Metro stations would boost the value of their properties far more than the extra taxes they’d have to pay.

Richard Stevens, Dulles Rail project coordinator for Fairfax County’s Transportation Department, has predicted that property in the tax district assessed at $6.8 billion in 2004 would be worth $15.3 billion by 2049. With a $400 million tax cap that can only be raised if 51 percent of LEADER members agree, the Dulles Rail project is a no-brainer for this well-heeled Tysons crowd.

Macerich Trust

This California-based real estate investment trust paid $2.3 billion for Tysons Corner Mall. In January, the Fairfax County Board approved a plan to expand the mall — even before a board-appointed task force had time to complete its study of the already heavily congested area.

Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority

MWAA’s 13-member board recently assumed control of the project from the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation. These unelected political appointees now control the $5 billion project, even though only five of them are from Virginia, and Northern Virginia developer William “Til” Hazel is the only one from Fairfax County. MWAA intends to pay the state’s share of the project by raising tolls on the Dulles Toll Road. As things now stand, there is no way to prevent the board from raising tolls as high as it pleases.

The Lerner Group

Washington Nationals owner Ted Lerner made his money developing shopping centers, including the upscale Tysons II/Galleria that boosted him to the largest private developer in the Washington area. As the third-largest landowner in Tysons Corner, Lerner is about to score big, having previously gained Fairfax supervisors’ approval to build six towers near Tysons II.

SAIC

Fairfax Board Chairman Gerry Connolly works for this giant defense contractor, which also used to employ Walter Alcorn, Connolly’s nominee for the Fairfax Planning Commission. Alcorn chairs the commission’s Transit-Oriented Development Committee. He’s also the brother of Daniel Alcorn, a lawyer for the Dulles Corridor Rail Association whose wife is West*Group Executive Vice President Kathryn MacLane.

With so many friends in high places, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that property owned by Campus Realty, SAIC’s San Diego-based real estate arm, is conveniently located right across the street from the Tysons Central 7 station — a station Connolly added to the project in 2002, three weeks before taking a job at SAIC. The company got a two-fer, as it also owns land next to another proposed Metro station in Reston.

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority

A Metrorail extension means more money, more jobs and more turf for WMATA, which did all the preliminary engineering on the project while sharing too-cozy third-floor office space with DTP in Rosslyn.

West*Group

An original member of DTP, West*Group left the consortium after conflict-of-interest complaints against the largest landowner in Tysons Corner. West*Group President Gerald Halpin and his employees are some of Connolly’s biggest campaign donors. Although Connolly worked as a paid consultant for World Resources — a toxic waste recycling firm run by Halpin’s son, Peter — he did not recuse himself from Dulles Rail project votes.

With 356 acres, West*Group stands to gain the most from higher densities, particularly since the company plans to build luxury town houses and condos on land it owns directly adjacent to the proposed Tysons East and Tysons 123 stations. But sources say the senior Halpin has become disillusioned with the project he spearheaded after Gov. Tim Kaine rebuffed local efforts to put the elevated tracks underground.

Losers

Route 7 commuters

Dulles Rail will generate an additional 1,351 car trips during morning rush hour. Most of this extra traffic will be forced onto Route 7, which is almost impassable now. There are no plans to significantly upgrade this choke point.

Commuters who don’t work at Tysons

Planners admit that only 12 percent of the current 100,000 or so daily Tysons commuters will ride Dulles Rail. Even so, it’s being used to justify a building boom that will add thousands of condos, offices and retail stores to the Washington region’s second-largest job center. All those extra people will add to the county’s worsening congestion while this mammoth project sucks up almost every available transportation dollar in Northern Virginia for decades.

So commuters who don’t work at Tysons will get virtually no congestion relief even as the higher densities put more cars on local roads.

Dulles Toll Road motorists

They were promised that once the road was paid for, tolls would be eliminated. But that’s not happening. Toll road drivers will wind up paying about 80 percent of the total cost of a $5 billion transit project they do not use, with tolls projected to increase as high as $5 to pay off the project’s $3 billion in bonds. That’s $350 million to $400 million a year coming directly out of the wallets of toll road drivers.

Blue and Orange lines riders

Increased demand for rail cars means that Blue Line service to Reagan International Airport will have to be cut to accommodate Dulles Rail. Meanwhile, already overcrowded Orange Line trains are expected to be sardine cans before they get to the Arlington stops, and limited track space through the Rosslyn tunnel promises longer delays for everybody west of the Potomac River.

Fairfax County taxpayers

Fairfax County taxpayers, whose tax bills have doubled over the past decade, will not only have to pay $110 million more in annual operating expenses for Dulles Rail, but they’re also liable for any cost overruns. Unlike LEADER members, there’s no tax cap for taxpayers.

Landowners who didn’t join LEADER

A recently filed lawsuit claims that the county did not give proper notice to property owners who refused to pay $30,000 to join LEADER before including them in the tax district. Chris Walker, chairman of the Dulles Corridor Users Group, told The Examiner he’s already paid $500,000 in extra taxes, even though his property is a mile and a half from a proposed station, while LEADER members whose properties are much closer are exempted.

South County residents

Dulles Rail’s $110 million annual operating deficit will leave no funds to help South County residents deal with the imminent traffic tie-ups caused by the Base Realignment and Closure-based relocation to Fort Belvoir. But like other Fairfax County taxpayers, their property taxes will go up anyway to pay for this exclusive Tysons Corner amenity.

Examiner intern Jonathan San contributed to this report.

bhollingsworth@dcexaminer.com