New polls continue to place O’Malley ahead, show Ehrlich closing the gap

BALTIMORE (Map, News) - New polls out this week continue to show Baltimore City Mayor Martin O’Malley slightly ahead in the race for governor, but Gov. Robert Ehrlich appears to be closing the gap.

A Baltimore Sun poll published Wednesday called the race “a toss-up,” with O’Malley in the lead, 47 percent to 46 percent.

“This poll reflects what our private polling has reflected for weeks,” the governor told reporters Wednesday. There was an “uptick” in support after the televised debates 10 days ago.

“We are where we thought we would be, and we are quite pleased,” he said.

The other three polls have the mayor leading by five or six points, much smaller than the 10 percent margin The Washington Post found in a poll published Sunday.

On Monday, Rasmussen Reports, based on a recorded telephone survey, said O’Malley led Ehrlich 50 percent to 45 percent, almost the same as the six-point spread it found in its Oct. 17 poll. But the pollster said, “When leaners are added to the equation, the race gets closer: 50 percent choose O’Malley and 47 percent would elect Ehrlich.”

The Wall Street Journal–Zogby Interactive poll on Tuesday said O’Malley was ahead 49 percent to Ehrlich’s 44 percent, a much smaller difference than in its Oct. 19 poll showing the mayor in the lead by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent.

The Baltimore Research poll published in The Examiner gave O’Malley a lead of 38.9 percent to 32.2 percent. The key difference between the Sun and Post polls is that the Sun estimates black turnout — a key component of Democrats’ hopes for victory — at 19 percent, and the Post estimates black voters at 25 percent, higher than recent turnout in non-presidential elections.

llazarick@baltimoreexaminer.com