Fourteen murders. In most American cities, that monthly homicide total would be a reason for despair. In Baltimore, it’s a sign of progress.

After 2007 became the worst year for city homicides since 1999, the 27 slayings recorded in January and February combined mark a sharp decline from the early months of last year.

“One murder is too many, but I’m encouraged by the numbers,” said City Councilman Jack Young, chairman of the council’s public safety subcommittee. “The police commissioner is doing a fantastic job. I’m hoping these numbers hold up, and we can be under 200 murders for the year.”

The 27 homicides are 40 percent less than the 45 slayings in the first two months of 2007. There are also 33 fewer shootings: 62 compared with 95 last year.

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Baltimore police spokesman Sterling Clifford said murders and shootings have been decreasing in Baltimore since last July with the lowest seven-month total since 1987.

“The seven-month figure is important,” he said. “We really have been putting a dent in the violent crime figure for more than a half-year now. This focus on violent crime in the districts is obviously having an effect. There are more officers actively confronting violent criminals, and it makes a difference.”

But that’s not to say Baltimore hasn’t seen its share of bloodshed in 2008.

There was the Feb. 15 domestic violence slaying of Shenera Norris, 31, who was stabbed to death and thrown from a window of her home, before police shot her attacker to death. There was the Feb. 27 unsolved double homicide of Edward Baylor, 32, and Rebecca Meekins, 16, who police say were fatally shot during a “road rage” incident in Bolton Hill.

Statistics from both the city and federal prosecutors in Baltimore show increased indictments and convictions for gun criminals.

Cases in which judges undercut prosecutors’ sentencing recommendations dropped noticeably in the last two years, said Margaret Burns, spokeswoman for the Baltimore City State’s Attorney’s Office.

“There’s a 25 percent decrease in the number of times judges sentence less than what the prosecutor recommended,” she said. “...Repeat violent gun offenders are getting very tough sentences more than in the past several years.”

But as criminals are driven from certain neighborhoods, they end up in others, said Al Evans, who lives in the South Baltimore neighborhood known as SBIC.

“The idiots come over here,” he said, gesturing to drug dealers who hang out on the corner of his block.

Former City Councilman Kenneth Harris said he believed Dixon’s focus on repeat violent offenders — which moved the police force away from cracking down on so-called quality-of-life crimes — has made a major difference.

“Now you have a holistic crime-fighting strategy going forward,” Harris said. “You’ve got to credit Mayor Dixon with allowing the police commissioner to use his expertise.”

But Harris warned the city’s looming budget deficit could hurt the police department’s efforts to fight crime.

“The city is facing a budget deficit and I’m wondering what impact that deficit will have,” he said.

Young also cautioned citizens not to get too optimistic with 2008’s downward movement in homicides.

“Call me in July,” he said.

February homicides

» Feb. 2: Cumberland Richardson, 62, shooting, 1600 W. Lafayette St.

» Feb. 2: Victor Couther, 19, shooting, 1600 E. Federal St.

» Feb. 7: Emmanuel Bryant, 22, shooting, 500 N. Loudon Ave.

» Feb. 7: Kemea Hair, 25, shooting, 1800 Bolton St.

» Feb. 15: Jeff Payne, 22, shooting, 1500 Pentridge Rd.

» Feb. 15: Shenera Norris, 31, stabbing, 4400 Fairview Ave.

» Feb. 16: Unidentified female, shooting, 3400 Woodland Ave.

» Feb. 18: Murriel Chew, 20, shooting, 1000 Russell St.

» Feb. 20: Henry Davis, 48, shooting, 1100 N. Chester St.

» Feb. 24: Julius Pressley, 23, shooting, 2500 E. Chase St.

» Feb. 25: Eric Jones, 23, shooting, 700 W. North Ave.

» Feb. 27: Edward Baylor, 32, shooting, 1500 Mt. Royal Ave.

» Feb. 27: Rebecca Meekins, 16, shooting, 1500 Mt. Royal Ave.

» Feb. 29: Bernard Wallace, 44, shooting, 1300 Bloomingdale Rd.

lbroadwater@baltimoreexaminer.com