I used to say that if you put a gun to my head and demanded to know who’d be the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, my answer would be: “Shoot.”

Now, I’m almost ready to say the same about the Democratic nominee and the next president, too.

I still think the likeliest answer to the last two questions is Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., but that’s a lot less certain than it used to be.

Polling continues to show that Americans favor a generic Democratic candidate as their next president and that only Giuliani or Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has much of a chance against top Democrats.

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But once the nominees are known, the clock will be reset and the race will tighten. The Democrat might be favored, but issues of executive experience and foreign policy could make it a contest.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, if Clinton wins the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, she’s almost certain to be the nominee.

But now you can easily see her losing in Iowa. And if she finishes third or significantly trails as No. 2 — especially behind Sen. Barack Obama (Illinois) — it could set off a cascade that causes her to lose New Hampshire and then the nomination.

Polls suggest that Clinton has built up lots of firewalls in states after New Hampshire, where she currently leads by 13 points. She leads in Michigan (Jan. 15) and Nevada (Jan. 19) by more than 20 points, according to RealClearPolitics.com averages, South Carolina (Jan. 26) by 12 points and Florida (Jan. 29) by 26 points.

To the extent that polling is reliable in a caucus state like Iowa, indications are that Clinton is in deep trouble. The topline ABC/Washington Post poll results showing Obama with 30 percent, Clinton with 26 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (North Carolina) with 22 mean less than other factors.

Specifically, the polls indicate that second-tier candidates like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Sens. Joe Biden (Delaware) and Chris Dodd (Connecticut) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) split up 25 percent of the vote among them.

The way the Iowa caucuses work, after a first round of balloting, candidates receiving less than 15 percent support get dropped on subsequent ballots, putting a premium on being the second choice of caucus-goers. Clinton lags behind her competitors in that category.

In early November, the CBS/New York Times poll indicated that Edwards was the second choice of 30 percent of supporters of second-tier candidates, while Obama was favored by 27 percent and Clinton by just 14 percent.

On the Republican side, Romney is losing his early Iowa advantage to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. If Romney doesn’t win Iowa, it’s a blow to his strategy of collecting a run of early victories that would propel him past Giuliani, the national and late-state front-runner.

Romney still has a significant lead in New Hampshire — 33 percent to 18 percent for Giuliani and 16 percent for McCain — but Giuliani is challenging.

And Giuliani also is catching up to Romney in Michigan, is ahead in Nevada and tied in South Carolina. In Florida, Giuliani leads by 17 points and in Feb. 5 states like California and New Jersey, by nearly 30 points.

It’s hard to see how Huckabee could capitalize on an Iowa victory, though he might attract some Independents in New Hampshire, or how McCain could convert a New Hampshire victory to capture the nomination. Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tennessee) seems to be catching fire nowhere.

In the latest Gallup polls for the general election, Clinton is leading Giuliani by just five points, McCain by six and Romney by 16. Obama is tied with Giuliani, leads McCain by just three and beats Romney by 17.

In other words, if Giuliani (or McCain) wins the GOP nomination, the general election outcome could be very close, with the GOP challenging the Democrat on national security, taxes and the size of government.

Romney, by the time he won the nomination, would close the present gap and challenge on the basis of executive experience as well as issues.

So, bottom line, Clinton still has an edge, but it’s nothing to bet much money on. If you’re inclined to do so, though, Ladbrokes of London puts the odds on Clinton at 1-2, Giuliani at 7-2, Romney at 11-2, Obama at 8-1 and Edwards at 25-1.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.