Oscar Watch: How the Golden Globes and critics' awards have affected the race

December 18, 7:37 AMAtlanta Movies ExaminerRyan McNally

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With the Golden Globe nominations announced and the major critics associations having weighed in—and with the guilds (directing, acting, etc.) poised to weigh in with their nominees over the next few weeks—here’s a look at how the Oscar race is shaping up in the three lead categories (Actor, Actress, Picture):

BEST ACTOR

Locking In:
1) Sean Penn, Milk. Wins from the Los Angels Film Critics Association and the New York Film Critics Association, plus a Golden Globe nominee. Done and done.
2) Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. A Golden Globe nominee, a runner-up with LAFC and NYFC, and a hell of a comeback story. He’s in.

Maybe:
1) Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  He’s the lead in a Best Pic frontrunner, he’s got a Golden Globe, and his Academy snub for the much-nominated Babel a few years back is still a puzzler. Looking good.
2) Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino. A Best Actor win from the National Board of Review was huge, and a runner-up acknowledgment from NYFCA was nice, but the GG snub hurt. Still hard to believe the Academy will shut out the 78-year-old legend.
3) Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road. Golden Globe nominated and well-respected, with three Oscar nods already to his name.
4) Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon. The acclaimed lead in a Best Pic frontrunner, but without the star power of Pitt. Still a major player.

Needs Help:
1) Richard Jenkins, The Visitor. There’s much love for this Independent Spirit Award Best Actor nominee. But he needs a SAG nomination to get him back in the game.

BEST ACTRESS

Locking In:
1) Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married. NBR winner, NYFC runner-up and Golden Globe … this is her moment.
2) Meryl Streep, Doubt. A legend and rolling with two Golden Globe nominations. Unstoppable.
3) Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. A NYFC runner-up, Golden Globe nominee, and even more respected than DiCaprio, with five Oscar nods to her name thus far.

Maybe:
1) Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. Wins from NYFC and LAFC, plus a GG nomination, put her right on the cusp despite the film’s tiny box office.
2) Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long. Golden Globe nominated and well-respected. But is the film too small?
3) Angelina Jolie, Changeling. Golden Globe nominated, and some felt she was snubbed for last year’s A Mighty Heart. But her performance split audiences.

Needs Help:
1) Cate Blanchett, The Mysterious Case of Benjamin Button. Some confusion over whether she would be in the Supporting or Lead category, and a troubling lack of awards recognition so far. Still, the Academy loves her and the pic is an Oscar frontrunner.
2) Melissa Leo, Frozen River. The indie darling needed a major critics’ win to bump her up, but runner-up recognition from LAFC and NYFC keeps her in the game.


BEST PICTURE

Locking In:
1) Slumdog Millionaire. NBR’s Best Pic, a runner-up from NYFC and a Golden Globe nominee. Leading the pack.
2) The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The epic with a GG nominee and Top 10 recognition from NBR and the American Film Institute—plus a lot of awards respect for director Fincher. A definite.
3) Frost/Nixon. Tallied the same nods as Benjamin Button above, and the Academy has plenty of love for director Ron Howard. Looking strong.

Maybe:
1) Milk. With a win from NYFC and Top 10 kudos courtesy of NBR and AFI, it looked like a definite …until the Golden Globes snubbed it. Probably a fluke, but we’ll see.
2) The Dark Knight. Runner-up nod at LAFC gives it come critical cache, plus Top 10 status with NBR and AFI. Still has to overcome “genre film” stigma and lack of GG nomination.
3) Doubt: Needs more momentum for the movie as a whole … but the acting power could carry it to a Best Pic nod.
4) Wall-E. Animated pic came out of nowhere to score Best Pic from the LAFC. Plenty of people like it, but do enough love it to make it a Best Pic nominee?
5) Rachel Getting Married. Carrying the indie flag—and carrying it well with a NYFC runner-up and NBR recognition—but probably still not mainstream enough.
6) Revolutionary Road. Golden Globe nominated and packed with star power, but is there enough critical passion?

Needs Help:
1) The Wrestler. Top 10 NBR and AFI, shut out of Globes … probably will have to “settle” for performance noms.
2) Gran Torino. See The Wrestler … but don’t count out Eastwood.
3) The Reader. GG nom, not much else … but Winslet and Fiennes are a potent combo.
4) Happy Go Lucky. Runner up at NYFC and a GG Comedy nominee. Could move up in a hurry with some SAG love.