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IEA says global energy path unsustainable: Peak oil may be closer than you think
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Increase in demand from developing nations
According to the UK Guardian, a "whistleblower" at the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that the latest figures reported in the 2009 World Energy Outlook (WEO) do not reflect the truth about declining oil reserves. The whistleblower claims the figures have been distorted by a policy intended to assuage America's denial of the need to shift to a low-carbon economy. "There's a suspicion that the IEA has been unduly influenced by the needs of American foreign policy in particlular." According to the Guardian:
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.
In the WEO report, the IEA has lowered its estimate for peak oil production to 2030, and does insist that the "current energy pathway" is "unsustainable." However, the whistlblower insists that even this is not an accurate assessment and that the truth is much more dire.
For decades the debate has ranged between alarmist predictions of certain societal collapse and those who say there's no shortage of oil, never has been. It's been tough to take a firm position on the issue because know one has ever known with unquestionable certainty just how much oil remains.
What is certain, however, is that energy demand in the form of oil imports from developing nations is expected to multiply by 2030. (see graph) Lead times for developing new production average about ten years. The current economic crisis has sharply reduced investment in new developments. The Wall Street Journal reports:
"Primary energy demand—that means power for electricity, transport, and everything else—is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 compared to 2007 levels. And most of that increase will come in developing countries. The total, global bill for meeting that energy demand? $26 trillion, the IEA says.
Global oil demand, after suffering two years of setbacks thanks to the economic meltdown, will resume growth and increase 24% over the period the IEA says, to 105 million barrels a day in 2030. That’s sharply down from the IEA’s 2007 forecast of 116 million barrels a day in 2030 but still higher than what many peak-oilers figure the world can produce."
Reports from other legitimate sources continue to point to declining oil supplies.
