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Nominations are in, now who is going to win?
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Oscar!
We've all seen the nominees by now, but the real fun of the next month is arguing with everyone over who we think should win. For the first time in a long time I've actually seen every movie nominated on the Oscar list except for one foreign film so I'm in a prime spot to pick and choose. Then again so is everyone else in the country. So let's sit back and talk a bit about who we think is going to be taking home a little golden man come next month. If you need reminding of who is in each category just jump over here.
Best Actor
Well I would say that Richard Jenkins is the surprise nomination here, though it really shouldn't be as The Visitor and his performance in it are both incredible. I'm not sure he's going to win though. Oscar usually favors the historical character and the bigger budget film and both Sean Penn in Milk and Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon fit into that category. Since that is the case, I think normally it would be Penn all the way. However, Mickey Rourke throws a screwball in everything. Not only is he an underdog, but he's also a comeback and the Academy loves both those things. Add to this the fact that his performance in The Wrestler was actually the best performance of the year and you've got your winner.
Best Actress
This one is actually tougher. I'd say Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo are long-shots, but could surprise everyone with an upset. Meryl Streep is of course amazing in Doubt, but by this time that's all we can expect from her. I don't see the voters giving here another Oscar, not in such great company. Angelina Jolie in Changeling shouldn't win it and I don't think she will. That leaves Kate Winslet in The Reader, which she already won the Golden Globe for. Well deserved I would say, though I'd personally like to see Anne Hathaway take it.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger. If anyone debates this with you you can end the debate quickly and easily by simply telling them that they're wrong.
Best Supporting Actress
I thought Doubt was one of the best performed films of the year so picking between Amy Adams and Viola Davis is nearly impossible. I think Adams carries a bigger name though an that would probably swing her more votes and the win. Taraji P. Henson's roll was a bit too small in Benjamin Button, but then again Judi Dench won this same award for Shakespeare In Love and was on screen for five minutes. Both Penelope Cruz and Marisa Tomei are long shots, but Tomei could sneak in on the coattails of Rourke.
Best Animated Feature
Wall E. Use the Heath Ledger tactic if argued with.
Best Director
I don't think anything will be able to stop the roll that Slumdog Millionaire and its director Danny Boyle (check out our interview with him here) are on right now. I'm 90 percent sure that Boyle will walk home with this award, and deservedly so. However, Benjamin Button did pick up 13 nominations so it seems to be a favorite with Mr. Oscar. If anyone is going to knock down Boyle it seems it will most likely be David Fincher. Though, if someone were to do it, I'd love it to be Gus Van Sant instead.
Best Picture
Again, Slumdog Millionaire is on such a roll I don't think anything is going to top it. Look for a Best Director/Picture knock out from the film, despite Benjamin Button having so many more nominations. Slumdog Millionaire is actually the film that deserves to win it all too, so that's one of those nice added benefits. Want a long shot? What if Frost]Nixon sneaks in. It's got big names behind it and Ron Howard has truly put together an amazing film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The fact that The Dark Knight isn't nominated is simply a sign of how stuck in their ways the Academy Awards truly are. I don't believe any other screenplay captured the characters and nuances of a previously written piece of work better than Dark Knight, and it's a shame that it got shoved to the side simply because it's a superhero flick. At least Little Miss Sunshine showed that the Academy knows how to laugh every once in a while. But I've gotten off point. The winner will be Benjamin Button, though I'm having trouble thinking of why it is actually better than any of the other film's screenplays.
Best Screenplay
I am overjoyed that both Wall E and In Bruges made this list. I seriously doubt that Wall E will win it, but I wish with all my heart that it does. Any screenplay that lacks talking for the first 20 minutes but still conveys such powerful emotions via sight and sound is incredible. Maybe I'm discussing sound editing here, but I still believe it's remarkable what Pixar did with the film and the screenplay. As for the winner, probably Milk, but who knows Frozen River or In Bruges could slip in there.
I know there's more, but let's just stop with the ones everyone actually cares about.
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