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Swine flu pandemic announcement imminent
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With as many as 1000 cases of swine flu confirmed in Australia, the World Health Organization (WHO) is on the verge of declaring the first flu pandemic since 1968, agency officials announced yesterday.
The rapid spread of the virus beyond North America is considered a key factor in calling the outbreak a pandemic. “We are getting really very close to knowing that we are in a pandemic situation,” WHO influenza chief Keiji Fukuda said in Geneva.
The agency is most concerned about creating worldwide panic and inapprorpiate responses from governments if they change the current level which is phase 5 to the highest level, phase 6, indicating a full pandemic. Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general said WHO was planning a conference call today with governments to verify various reports. “Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement,” she said.
According to the latest WHO data, there are now 25,288 reported cases of swine flu infection across 73 countries, including 139 deaths. That includes 13,217 cases and 27 deaths reported as of last Friday in the United States by CDC officials. Florida has 247 confirmed cases and no deaths.
While most of the swine flu cases including deaths have occurred in Mexico where the outbreak began and the United States, person-to-person transmission in now being reported in Australia and Chile, as well as Great Britain, Spain and Japan, according to published reports. Apparently there have also been reports of unusually large numbers of severe cases among Canada’s Inuit population,
The vast majority of swine flu cases globally have remained mild and early reports indicated that most deaths were occurring in people with other medical conditions such as diabetes, heart disease or immune deficiency. However, some of the deaths have in fact occurred in otherwise healthy people. According to WHO, about half the people who have died from this swine flu A/H1N1 infection have been otherwise healthy people. Fukuda called that “one of the observations which has given us the most concern.”
In the United States, most infections have been mild and, and the majority patients have made rapid recoveries. To date the virus is still susceptible to the two antivirals, Tamiflu and Relenza. During the next few months, CDC scientists will be looking to see if the swine flu virus mutates or becomes resistant to these medications, or is more easily spread among people. U.S. health officials have said there is no way to tell now if the virus will be more virulent when, and if, it returns to the Northern Hemisphere this winter.
If research and testing proceed on schedule during the summer, a swine flu virus could be ready by October. CDC offficials report that candidate viruses have been shipped to vaccine manufacturers. At this point, it is unclear whether a vaccine will actually be needed. The decision to move forward would be based on several factors, including the severity and spread of the virus and whether there’s a safe and effective vaccine, the CDC has said.
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