Bad timing - one vote against the Rays' trade of Scott Kazmir

August 29, 5:06 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

Previous Next

2 comments Print Email RSS Subscribe

Subscribe

Get alerts when there is a new article from the Tampa Bay Rays Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use.

Email Address   Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use

Good luck in Cali, Kaz! AP/Charles Krupa

Now that we’ve all had a day to think about the trade of Scott Kazmir to the Angels it’s time to put our emotions and knee-jerk reactions aside and weigh the pros and cons of the deal.

Reasons the Kazmir deal is bad for the Rays:

1. The Message.

There’s no getting around the fact that Rays’ management has sent a message to the players. It will be interesting to see how G.M. Andrew Friedman rationalizes this deal to Rays fans and players through the press, but the bottom line is the Rays just traded a player who was really helping this team out right when they needed him the most, and the Rays received no Major League help in return. The message: money and the future are more important than winning and the present.

2. The Myths.

Here we go. In the hours following the announcement of this trade, many inaccurate justifications have been offered in defense of this move. Let’s debunk a few of them right now.

Myth: Scott Kazmir is nothing more than a .500 pitcher and the Rays will lose little, if anything, by replacing him in the rotation with Andy Sonnanstine or Wade Davis.

Kazmir is a two-time All-Star who had a terrible first half, and looked to be just now rounding back into All-Star form. He’s been over .500 his whole career, with a lifetime winning percentage of .556. As bad as he’s been this year, the Rays are 12-8 in his 20 starts. Kaz has also come through in clutch games over the past month, putting up his three best games of the season in two key victories over the Yankees and Rangers and Wednesday’s heartbreaking loss to the Blue Jays. He would definitely be a big asset in a September comeback bid for the wild card. Andy Sonnanstine is under .500 for his career and produced just five quality starts out of 15 for the Rays to open the season before he was demoted to Durham, where he has posted a 4.40 ERA. Kazmir has five quality starts out of his last six alone. I don’t see how this isn’t a drop-off. Wade Davis is a highly touted 23-year old prospect who’s had success at every level of the minor leagues, but he’s yet to throw a pitch in the Majors and it would be crazy to assume he’s just going to come in and give the Rays what Kazmir’s been able to provide over the last month.

Myth: The Rays don’t have a realistic chance to catch the Red Sox anyways, so they might as well dump salary while they have the opportunity.

Entering play on Friday, the Rays were just 3.5 games behind the Red Sox (they are now 4.5 back after a bad night on Friday against Detroit. The Dodgers were 2.5 games out on September 1 last year and won their division. The ’07 Phillies were 3.5 games behind the Mets on September 15 and won the division. The ’07 Colorado Rockies were five games out of the wild card on September 1 and still made it. This team has the talent to make a comeback, and though it’s been a tough season, the players have really worked hard to be in this position and management should not be undermining their hard work by unnecessarily trading away a big asset who could really help the team down the stretch.

Myth: If the Rays didn’t make this trade now, there’s no way they’d be able to keep Carl Crawford.

This is absolute insanity. Granted, the Angels may not need to add a starting pitcher like Kazmir in the offseason, so the demand may not necessarily be as high, but the way Kaz has been pitching, the odds are just as good he would have driven his value up with a solid September performance with the Rays. There’s no arguing that the Rays would indeed need to move Kazmir’s $20 million over the next two years if they wanted to pick up CC’s $10 million option for 2010 and possibly keep him long term, but there’s no good reason they could not just trade him in the offseason. Kaz is still just 25 years old. He may be overpaid, but there would be takers.

Reasons the Kazmir trade is good for the Rays:

1. A Player to be Named Later

Matthew Sweeney and Alex Torres are the two prospects already confirmed to be coming to Tampa Bay in this deal. The main piece of the deal, however, will be the infamous "Player to be Named" – who should turn out to be a top-level prospect who is already on the Angels’ 40-man roster and therefore cannot be announced as part of the trade until after the season when he will not have to clear waivers to be moved. One name bandied about is Brandon Wood, a 24 year old infield prospect who’s slugged 144 homers in his last five years of minor league ball. If Wood does in fact become the "Player to be Named", the Rays will haul in more in this deal than they would have if they waited until the season was over to deal Kazmir.

2. Carl Crawford’s future

It is true that this move gives the Rays the payroll flexibility to keep Carl Crawford in Tampa Bay. Crawford’s name had actually come up in trade rumors over the past year and a half because everyone in the league knew it would be very difficult for the Rays to afford him in 2010 and beyond. With Kazmir, there’s always the chance he could suffer an injury over the final month of the season and the Rays would lose the ability to trade him and wipe that $20 million off their books.

Overall Opinion:

I understand the move, but I can’t agree with the timing. I’m sure Andrew Friedman will come out and say something like "We still believe the 2009 Rays can win the World Series . . ." but actions speak much louder than words and trading Kazmir at this time sends the exact opposite message to this team and its fans. If management truly believed this was a World Series-caliber team, they wouldn’t have traded away one of its best pitchers right before the critical stretch run. Obviously there is a very slight chance the Rays would be saddled with Kaz’s salary for at least one more year, but the odds of that happening are low enough to justify keeping him around for the final month. One can only hope the Rays are not sitting at home in October watching Edwin Jackson pitch against Scott Kazmir in the ALCS.

Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times does a nice job defending the trade and the timing.

In the good news department, Akinori Iwamura returned to the field for the Rays today. Hopefully Aki’s return and the imminent arrival of some potentially very useful September call-ups can jumpstart a Rays’ run at Boston and Texas.

Do you vote yes or no on the Kaz trade? Let me know in a comment.

Jason Bartlett hits: 132

Jason Bartlett groundball singles between short and third: 27

Follow the Tampa Bay Rays Examiner on Twitter.

Have a great Rays' story idea for me? Will the Rays get back into this thing or has this trade complete taken the wind out of Tampa Bay’s sails? E-mail me at raysexaminer@live.com