2009 AL East Preview: Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox and Yankees

April 5, 5:28 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

Previous Next

4 comments Print Email RSS Subscribe

Subscribe

Get alerts when there is a new article from the Tampa Bay Rays Examiner. Read Examiner.com's terms of use.

Email Address   Include other special offers from Examiner.com Terms of Use

Joe Maddon will guide the young Rays back to the playoffs AP/Charles Krupa

The baseball buzz is starting to come back to the Tampa Bay area. After a crazy offseason in which the three beasts of the AL East all believe they made significant improvements, it’s time to start settling this thing on the field. The Rays begin their defense of the American League Championship on Monday in Boston. With the calendar on the heels of a new season, it can only mean one thing – prediction time. Will the Rays successfully defend their Division title?

When breaking down the AL East, I looked at nine different categories and gave each team a score of 1-10 in each category. Tally it all up and we’ll see who will come out on top.

As you can see, I have the Rays rated as the strongest team, followed by the Sox and then the Yankees. Here’s how I predict the final standings to shake out:

• Tampa Bay 101-61
• Boston 98-64
• New York 93-69
• Toronto 70-92
• Baltimore 69-93

Before you accuse me of over-the-top homerism, let me explain my ratings.

Catcher

Dioner Navarro is a 25 year-old All-Star who comes into the season in the best shape of his career. Varitek still knows how to handle a pitching staff, but his bat has to be a concern after an abysmal 2008 season at the plate. How many more games behind the plate does Jorge Posada have left in him? He is a big question mark after missing most of last season with shoulder surgery. Reports out of Yankee camp say he’s healthy, but I’m skeptical. Gregg Zaun is holding the position for Matt Wieters in Baltimore, and Toronto could do worse than Rod Barajas, but he’s no All-Star.

Infield

I’m giving the Yankees and Red Sox the edge here. Assuming A-Rod comes back at full strength, you can’t argue with the combination of him, Jeter, and Teixeira. Robinson Cano rebounded from a slow start and looked like an All-Star himself for the rest of the 2008 season. As for the Sox, Pedroia and Youkilis were first and third in the AL MVP voting last year. Jed Lowrie and Mike Lowell don’t drag them down too much, either. As for the Rays, they are rock solid at all four positions. Longoria, Bartlett, and Pena all received AL MVP votes and Iwamura provided steady defense and a consistent bat. Toronto has the weakest infield in the division, with Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill providing solid defense, but limited offense up the middle. Scott Rolen needs to find the fountain of youth if he’s going to have an impact this year, and you know what you’re going to get from Lyle Overbay – not enough. The Orioles have impact players in the infield – Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff are all upper-echelon players at their positions.

Outfield

The Rays have two of the most dynamic talents in this division playing in the same outfield. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have more tools than Home Depot and both played through injuries in 2008. This year could be downright scary for Rays’ opponents if both reach the top of their game. Bay, Ellsbury, and Drew are nothing to sneeze at for Boston. Brett Gardner has been named the starting centerfielder for the Yankees and the pressure will be on the rookie to provide some much needed range with Johnny Damon and Xavier Nady playing alongside him. It wasn’t too long ago that Vernon Wells and Alex Rios of the Blue Jays are solid, while the Orioles are combining the speedy Felix Pie and Adam Jones to complement future All-Star Nick Markakis.

Rotation

Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen aren’t the only "Big Three" to play in Boston. Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jon Lester are quite possibly the best 1-2-3 of any starting staff in baseball. John Smoltz could give the Sox the best staff in the game if he comes back in June and performs at his normal level. CC Sabathia’s turned himself into a dominant force and he could alter the landscape of the division if he gives the Yankees what he gave Milwaukee in the second half of 2008. CC and number two starter AJ Burnett joined the Yanks and will front Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain in what should be a very good staff and could be an elite staff. The Rays feel great about their pitching staff. Shields, Kazmir, Garza and Sonnanstine return from what was one of the top five staffs in the Majors last year. At some point this season, David Price will join the rotation as the fifth starter and depending on how he does, he could make the Rays’ staff the best in the game. The Blue Jays have Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, and three question marks. The Orioles have Jeremy Guthrie and four question marks.

Bullpen

The Red Sox have the best bullpen in baseball, hands down. Adding Takashi Saito in the offseason was huge. They can now go Okajima-Saito-Papelbon in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen give the Boston bullpen great depth. The Rays are not far behind. The Rays may have the deepest bullpen in all of baseball, with Balfour, Howell, Joe Nelson, and Dan Wheeler as reliable options in innings six through eight. Brian Shouse should excel as the new situational lefty, and the loser of the Hammel/Niemann fifth starter battle should give the Rays a solid long man. Troy Percival is locked in as the closer right now and though fans may be Percy skeptics, he can definitely handle the job as long as he is healthy. The Rays have Jason Isringhausen as backup if Percival does go down and they could also use Grant Balfour or Dan Wheeler (last resort) in the role. Joe Maddon likes having plenty of options out there in his bullpen and he’ll certainly have that luxury this year. The Yankees have the best closer of all-time in Mariano Rivera, but there are so many other question marks in that bullpen. New York is counting on Damaso Marte and Brian Bruney to anchor the seventh and eighth inning. I’m just not very confident the Yankees will be able to consistently get to Rivera and it could cost them in this insanely competitive division. The O’s need closer George Sherrill to bounce back from a terrible second half of 2008 and Toronto’s bullpen is average in front of solid closer BJ Ryan.

Lineup

When A-Rod returns, the Yankees will have quite the potent lineup, but they lack speed, which will make them one-dimensional. The Red Sox have great balance and you won’t find two guys who are more clutch than Pedroia and Youkilis. The Rays have the perfect balance between speed and power, but won’t blow you away with a high batting average. The Rays should lead the league in steals again and they can score runs in so many ways. These are three great lineups and it’s tough to say one is the best, so I bailed and gave them all the same grade. Baltimore has a really good balance of speed and power as well. They have an underrated lineup and should be able to score, but not enough to offset their pitching problems. Toronto’s lineup severely lacks power. They aren’t dynamic making things happen on the bases, either.

Speed

The Rays are clearly the class of the division in this category. Upton and Crawford could finish 1-2 in the American League in stolen bases and the Rays will again lead the Majors in that category. Adam Jones, Felix Pie, and Brian Roberts give Baltimore a solid speed element to their attack. The Red Sox have Jacoby Ellsbury, who led the league in steals in 2008. Dustin Pedroia also stole 20 bases last year, so they can run a little bit. Alex Rios stole 32 bases for the Blue Jays in ’08, but they have no other threats. The Yankees are completely devoid of speed. Brett Gardner needs to impact games with his speed this year if the Yankees are to have any semblance of a running game. As it stands, Alex Rodriguez will be their best base-stealer when he returns from injury.

Defense

The Rays are the best defensive team in the league. Seven Rays enter the 2009 season with hopes of taking home a Gold Glove. Right field is the only position which the Rays don’t have a Gold Glove candidate. Pedroia and Youkilis are elite defensively, and words cannot describe Jacoby Ellsbury’s brilliance in the outfield last season. Bay and Drew are about average as corner outfielders, but overall the Sox are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Yankees are just not a great defensive team. Rodriguez has successfully made the adjustment from shortstop to third, and Teixeira is Gold Glove quality at first base. Jeter can still get it done at short, but the outfield is average at best. Toronto features a solid middle infield with Marco Scutaro at short and Aaron Hill at second. Baltimore is close to average defensively, with no real standouts, but no huge liabilities either.

Manager

Terry Francona is at the top of his profession. He’s led a once-cursed franchise to two World Series titles and could add a third any time now. He’s been the perfect fit in the Boston dugout ever since taking over for Grady Little in 2004. Speaking of perfect fits, Joe Maddon accomplished the impossible, leading the Rays past the Red Sox for both the 2008 AL East Division title and American League Championship. He’s the perfect blend of experience, knowledge, temperament and positive attitude to help a young, talented group of Rays reach their full potential. Cito Gaston led the Blue Jays to back-to-back World Series titles in the early ‘90s, but he’s facing an uphill battle trying to get anywhere with this roster. Baltimore’s Dave Tremblay is unproven as a Major League manager. If he can lead the Orioles past Toronto into fourth place, I would consider that a pretty good accomplishment.

Most of the experts out there are picking the Red Sox or the Yankees to win the division, with the Rays coming in third. It just seems like most people are either blinded by the flashy off-season of the Yankees or they lack enough guts to pick the Rays to repeat and are bailing out by "safely" picking the Rays to miss the playoffs. The Rays are the defending champions, and only improved in the off-season. The division is theirs until someone can knock them off – and I don’t think anyone will.

More 2009 previews of the AL East from Examiners:

Orioles Examiner Jay Trucker predicts the answers to some key questions involving the O's right here.

Boston Sports Examiner Mark Fuery has picked the Rays second behind the Red Sox - check out his preview right here.

Pete Sabatini knows the Yankees – catch up on the Bronx Bombers right here.

Agree or disagree with how I rated the teams? – Leave a comment.

Have a Rays storyline for 2009 you’d like me to address? Want to sign my petition to make Opening Day a national holiday? E-mail me at raysexaminer@live.com

Tune in to Speaking of Sports 2.0 at 7 p.m. tonight for our special 2009 MLB preview show. I will give all my predictions for the upcoming season, as will Althea Pashman and Tampa Bay Sports Examiner Ted Fleming. The show will air on Sarasota’s WSRQ 1220 AM and you can listen live right here.