Rays 2009 player preview: Troy Percival

March 13, 9:14 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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There was a point in history when it looked like Troy Percival may have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Ok, there have probably been a few times when that was the case. Ironically enough, Percival’s first potential "last game" ended disastrously for him at the Trop. It was on July 9, 2005 and Percival, closing for the Detroit Tigers at the time, gave up a walk-off two-run homer to Jonny Gomes. Percival went on the DL the next day and it was thereafter discovered he had a torn muscle in his right elbow.

The elbow injury supposedly forced Percival into retirement. He actually took on a job as an advance scout for the Tigers in 2006. His elbow injury was considered "career-ending" so he was trying to stay in baseball any way he could even though he really wanted to be on the field.

"It's not something I want to make a career out of. It fills a need the Tigers have. Ideally, I'd like to be in a uniform and on the field." – Percival upon taking the scouting job in 2006.

To make a long story short, Percival worked his way back into throwing shape and nearly two years after "ending" his career with a walk-off gopher ball to the Rays, he returned to the Majors on June 29, 2007 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Basically, some of his old buddies from the Angels were then playing for the Cardinals and pestered him into making a comeback (amongst them current Ray Adam Kennedy). Percy’s comeback went well for the Cards and Joe Maddon and the Rays knew and liked him enough to sign him to a two-year deal before last season.

The Rays posted a bullpen ERA of 6.16 in 2007. Keep that in mind when considering the impact of bringing Troy Percival on board for the 2008 season. Yes, Percival had an up-and-down season. He helped make everyone else better, though. The Rays’ bullpen posted an ERA of 3.55 in 2008. Let’s see, a bullpen ERA of 2.61 runs lower than the year before. Yeah, I’d say he made a difference. Yes, Balfour and Howell put up the great numbers, but Percival was the glue that held the bullpen together and he deserves a good amount of credit for the turnaround.

Here are some of Percival’s key numbers from 2008:

• Percival’s 28 saves moved him up four spots to eighth on the all-time saves list with 352.
• From April 22 to June 30, the Rays won 24 consecutive games in which Percival appeared.
• His .184 BAA was sixth best among AL relievers.
• His 1.77 HR/9 IP was fourth worst among AL relievers.
• He had an ERA of 3.04 at home, 6.63 on the road.

There are definitely some noteworthy numbers there. Obviously, the long ball was Percival’s Achilles’ heel last year. He’s still one of the toughest guys to hit in the league. He’s not necessarily the strikeout an inning guy he was earlier in his career, but he can still get it done. If he is really, truly healthy, then he can resemble the same pitcher who once dominated the American League while pitching out of the Anaheim bullpen. Through the end of June last year, Percival actually had 30 strikeouts in 28 innings worked.

Health is obviously the paramount concern for Troy Percival heading into the 2009 season. He underwent offseason back surgery and has been quite adamant about the fact he will be ready to go on Opening Day. Percival did make his Spring Training debut as scheduled on Thursday against the Phillies. We shall see.

My 2009 prediction: 48 G, 47.2 IP, 2-4, 3.94 ERA, 19 SV, 40 K, 1.29 WHIP

If Percival hits those numbers he will pass Jeff Reardon (367) for seventh on the all-time saves list. He would need a huge year of 34 saves to pass Billy Wagner (385) and move into sixth place. I don’t see that happening, but he could easily get Reardon.

Troy Percival on Baseball Reference

Troy Percival on Retrosheet

Troy Percival on FanGraphs

How high do you think Percival will climb on the saves list? Let me know in a comment.

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