Rays 2009 player preview: Andy Sonnanstine

February 20, 11:50 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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He can pitch pretty well without sunglasses too. AP/Steven Senne

Andy Sonnanstine has to be the Rodney Dangerfield of Major League Baseball. Is there a 13-game winner pitching for a Division Champ out there who gets less respect? Throw in an impressive 2-1 playoff record and it really leaves you wondering how this guy gets lost in all the Shields-Garza-Kazmir-Price talk. With Sonnanstine again expected to quietly anchor the back of the 2009 Rays’ rotation, could this be the year he gets recognized as a top young pitcher in the American League?

Sonnanstine was Mr. Consistency for the Rays last season. He didn’t miss a start and he’s the only one of the four returnees to the starting rotation whose performance did not suffer on the road. Sonnanstine’s recipe for success: pinpoint control and a lot of junk. Sonnanstine is definitely a thinking man’s pitcher – he is always plotting to stay one step ahead of his opponent and there is actual statistical evidence to back this up (as opposed to my usual statements unsupported by statistics, logic, or reason of any kind).

Most pitchers statistically are most difficult to hit the first time through the lineup, then as the hitters grow accustomed to the speed, movement and pattern of their pitches, subsequent trips through the lineup are much more difficult. Andy Sonnanstine is an anomaly. He is actually most effective the third time through the order. Sonnanstine makes a conscious effort to set hitters up for the next at-bat and it pays off big time. The first time through, Sonnanstine’s BAA is .283, the second time through it jumps to .302, but the third time through it plummets to .241. The ability to succeed deeper in games is such a blessing for Sonnanstine because it helps him squeeze through that extra inning here and there where most other starters would get the hook.

Some more key Sonnanstine stats from 2008:

• Fifth in the AL – fewest walks
• Sixth in AL – fewest walks/9 IP
• Eighth in AL – K/BB ratio
• Third in AL – fewest fastballs thrown
• Sixth in AL – lowest fastball velocity
• Second in AL – highest % of pitches in strike zone
• Sixth in AL – first pitch strikes

Sonnanstine doesn’t necessarily use the fastball as often as most pitchers because he throws a nice cutter. His success stems from the fact that he can get ahead of hitters throwing any of his pitches and then he keeps them off balance by attacking the strike zone and pitching to contact. Andy Sonnanstine, more than anyone on the Rays uses the classic theory of pitching to succeed – his most effective pitch is strike one and go from there.

My 2009 prediction: 12-11, 4.11 ERA, 188 IP, 30 GS, 1.33 WHIP, 114 K

I’d love to see Sonnanstine put up better numbers, but it’s dangerous pitching to contact the way he does. If he keeps his home run total down, he should be fine. If he goes .500 he will have done his job at the back end of the rotation. He reminds me a lot of Bronson Arroyo with his junk, though I think Arroyo has a better fastball.

Andy Sonnanstine on Baseball Reference

Andy Sonnanstine on Retrosheet

Andy Sonnanstine on FanGraphs

Think I'm way off base here (get it - off base - it's a baseball pun)? Let me know in a comment.

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