Rays 2009 player preview: Pat Burrell

February 18, 2:38 AMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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Pat the Bat brings his World Series ring to St. Pete (AP/Lenny Ignelzi_ 

When Pat Burrell signed with the Rays on January 5, it was clearly the biggest move of the offseason for Tampa Bay. The Rays have generally stayed away from high-priced free agents since the disastrous signing of Greg Vaughn in 1999. After a 2008 run to the World Series ended with the Rays being shut down by lefties Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, it became apparent that the Rays needed a right-handed power source for the middle of the lineup and Pat the Bat was their man.

Burrell is currently on a streak of eight consecutive seasons with 20 or more homers and has hit 30 or more four times. Burrell, like Carlos Pena, is your classic moneyballer – he strikes out a lot but also draws a ton of walks to go along with his home runs. Burrell’s walked over 100 times in each of the past two seasons – hopefully the trend will continue.

After playing left field for the last nine seasons in Philadelphia, Burrell will move to the designated hitter role as a member of the Rays. This should not be a problem, as Burrell is regarded as one of the poorest defensive outfielders in the league. A former number one overall draft pick, Burrell faces the challenge of trying to stay mentally focused during the game, even though he will be spending most of it on the bench waiting to hit, rather than in the field. Some players absolutely hate being a DH, but Burrell has done it quite a few times in interleague play, so it shouldn’t be a huge issue.

Here are a few key numbers from last year for Burrell:

• Eighth in NL in FanGraphs’ win probability added
• Sixth among ML outfielders in home runs
• Third among ML outfielders in highest walk frequency
• Fourth lowest among ML outfielders BA on balls in play
• Sixth lowest among ML outfielders in groundball/flyball ratio

For those of you not familiar with the statistic, win probability added is defined as the following:

WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

Throughout his career, Burrell has been very solid in the WPA category, which bodes well for the Rays. The addition of Burrell makes the Rays one of only three teams with two players ranked in the top 15 in the Majors in WPA (Carlos Pena is the other). The Mets (Carlos Beltran and David Wright) and the Twins (Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau) are the other two clubs. It’s all about winning and in Burrell the Rays have found a player statistically proven to help your chances.

My 2009 prediction: .254, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 90 R, 102 BB, .379 OBP

Burrell is the biggest free agent the Rays have signed in a long time, but unlike previous signees, Burrell won’t be expected to be the best player on the team or lead a turnaround. All the Rays want Burrell to do is just be himself. Be a veteran, put up the numbers you’ve been putting up and contribute to making winning, instead of losing, a tradition for the Rays.

Pat Burrell on Baseball Reference

Pat Burrell on RetroSheet

Pat Burrell on FanGraphs

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