Rays 2009 player preview: Carlos Pena

January 7, 1:19 AMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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Only two players finished in the top 10 in the AL MVP voting in both the 2007 and 2008 seasons, can you name them? Nope, it isn’t Gabe Gross and Julio Lugo. The answer is Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Pena. Can Carlos have a strong enough 2009 season to be in the MVP mix for a third consecutive season? The answer will depend on the overall health of the Rays and how much everyone else in the lineup steps up their game.

Pena’s unbelievable numbers in 2007 put him on many MVP ballots. If Pena hits 46 homers like he did in 2007 and the Rays win 97 games like they did in 2008, then MVP votes will certainly be heading Pena’s direction. His numbers dipped in 2008, but Pena still earned MVP votes because of his clutch hitting while the Rays were battling injuries late in the season. Pena’s Gold Glove defense at first base also helped his cause.

Pena drove in 29 runs in the month of August while both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria were out of the lineup. He pretty much single-handedly held on to the AL East lead for the Rays. Hopefully for the Rays, it won’t come to the point where Pena, or any player, will have to carry the team on his back in 2009. It’s nice to know they have guys who can do it though. The lineup is deep and talented and three or four guys could potentially step up and have an MVP caliber season.

Looking at the numbers from 2008, a few things stand out. First of all, if you think Pena’s franchise record 46 homers in 2007 were a complete fluke, think again. Pena hit 20 homers in his final 267 at-bats of 2008. Do the math. He wasn’t that far off. After missing most of June with a broken finger, Pena came back and played from July 1 to the end of the season close to his 2007 pace. When examining Pena’s entire career, it is clear he is a second-half guy with 84 of his 163 career homers coming in August and September.

One area where Pena struggled was against lefties. Obviously left-handed hitters don’t perform as well against left-handed pitchers, but Pena is a career .226 hitter against lefties and managed to hit only .190 against them in 2008. If Pena can get his average against lefties back to the .240 to .250 range, then his overall numbers should see a significant improvement.

One stat that I love from FanGraphs is the "CLUTCH" stat, which identifies players who perform better in clutch situations than they do under normal circumstances. Pena was seventh in the AL in the clutch rating for 2008. Red Sox fans out there will appreciate the fact Alex Rodriguez was dead last in all of baseball among qualifiers in the clutch category. Pena is at his best in late game situations with runners on base, which is why he is such a valuable player.

The bottom line with Pena is he won’t blow anyone away with his batting average, but he is a "moneyballer" and a clutch player. He hits homers, draws walks and gives you a high on-base percentage. Pena’s number one goal going into 2009 should be to defend his Gold Glove. If you concentrate on your D, the offense usually follows suit. Mark Teixeira is already getting a ton of publicity for his fielding prowess and will probably challenge Pena for the award because it is almost a popularity contest now, but Pena is as good as there is defensively and should prove it again in 2009.

My 2009 prediction: .258 BA, 37 HR, 114 RBI, .388 OBP, 95 R, 101 BB, 1 Gold Glove.

Those numbers probably won’t make Pena MVP, but they will be a huge contribution if the Rays are to repeat as AL East Champs.

Carlos Pena on baseball reference

Carlos Pena on FanGraphs

Carlos Pena on RetroSheet

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