Rays 2009 player preview: Matt Garza

January 24, 9:23 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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Matt Garza definitely had a coming out party in the 2008 ALCS against the Boston Red Sox. Garza won Game Three and Game Seven of the series en route to being named ALCS MVP. It is now time for Garza to build upon the postseason success he enjoyed last year and take his game to the next level.

Garza was consistent in the 2008 regular season, but suffered from the universal plague that ailed the whole starting staff last season – road games.

Home record: 7-3, 2.89 ERA, 5 HR allowed, 93.1 IP

Road record: 4-6, 4.53 ERA, 14 HR allowed, 91.1 IP

When you look deeper at the home/road splits for Garza, you find his WHIP and strikeouts are very similar on the road to what they are at home. The only real difference here for Garza is the home run department. If he can cut down on the home run total, then his road woes should become a thing of the past.

Garza was a pretty solid 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA last year despite being one of the worst in all of baseball at throwing the all-important first-pitch strike. Garza was ninth-worst in the Majors with only 55.4% of his first pitches being strikes. Of course Edinson Volquez and Carlos Zambrano were also in the top ten, so I am starting to think that the first-pitch strike is quite an overrated statistic.

Garza’s pitching style makes him the Grant Balfour of the starting staff – meaning he relies heavily on a great fastball. Only five starters in all of baseball were more likely to throw a fastball than Garza. Matt threw the heater on 72.2% of his pitches in 2008 at an average velocity of 93.2 MPH. Garza is definitely a classic power pitcher. Establish the fastball. Establish it more. Then work in the curve and the changeup. It is a proven formula for getting hitters out and there is no reason to believe it won’t continue to work for Garza

My 2009 prediction: 34 GS, 15-8, 3.57 ERA, 211 IP, 178 K, 1.28 WHIP

The ALCS MVP should continue to anchor one of the great young pitching staffs in all of baseball.

Matt Garza on Baseball Reference

Matt Garza on RetroSheet

Matt Garza on FanGraphs

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