Rays 2009 player preview: James Shields

January 2, 2:15 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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Can Shields make the All-Star team in 2009? 

The Rays still have some wheeling and dealing to do this winter and the 40-man roster will undoubtedly undergo some changes between now and February 14 when pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training. That, however, is not stopping me from breaking down the roster player-by-player and preparing for the season ahead. I am going to save the players that may not wind up with the team for last, in the hope that by the time I get through all of the mainstays the Rays will have made most of their roster moves.

A quick note on my projections: I am assuming a full year of good health for each player. I'm not into the business of predicting people to get hurt.

Kicking it off then is James Shields. First of all, “Big Game” James is still a nickname he needs to grow into. It does rhyme, which is nice, but Shields was only 2-2 in the postseason last year. He did get the only World Series win for Tampa Bay but I still think he needs to win a couple more big games before he truly owns that nickname. Shields has all the tools you look for in a workhorse starting pitcher and I believe he absolutely will prove that he is a big game pitcher this season.

Diving into the numbers we find that only five pitchers in all of baseball have thrown more than Shields’ 430 innings in the last two seasons. Those guys are CC Sabathia, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and Dan Haren. Not bad company to be in for James.

Shields’ strikeout total dropped to 160 in 2008 from 184 in 2007, even though he pitched the same number of innings. This is not a bad thing. This is a sign of Shields maturing as a pitcher and becoming more efficient. Shields was 12th in the majors with 215 innings pitched in 2008. When you look at pitches thrown, however, Shields was only 40th in the majors. When you break it down, Shields averaged 14.56 pitches thrown per inning, which was one of the 10 lowest totals in the majors among full-time starters.

Shields’ efficiency is a result of being more comfortable pitching to contact. His ERA actually dropped from 3.85 in 2007 to 3.56 last year and he gave up four fewer home runs – 24 - in 2008 than he did in 2007. He also induced 21 groundball double plays in 2008 compared to 13 in 2007. Keep in mind that he pitched the exact same number of innings in both seasons so it makes it easy to compare the numbers and get an accurate picture of how Shields has improved.

The single thing that Shields needs to improve upon in 2009 is his performance on the road. In ’08 he was only 5-6 with a 4.82 ERA on the road and gave up 15 of his 24 homers in road starts while averaging less than six innings per start. James’ road woes have plagued him for his entire career – he has a 3.23 career ERA at the Trop as opposed to a 4.82 ERA on the road.

Shields just turned 27 and is heading into the prime of his career. He’s got one of the best changeups in the league and he’s learning how to use it to get further into games and keep his pitch counts down. That is the absolute key to being a successful pitcher in the major leagues – get as far into the game as possible. Shields tied for the American League lead with two complete game shutouts in ’08 and I think he could get even more than that in ’09. He has the attitude and stuff of a big-time winner and I believe his mental makeup will help him turn around his road struggles and make 2009 the best season of his career.

My 2009 projections: 16-8, 3.42 ERA, 230 IP, 181 SO, 5 CG, 3 SO

There are many, many great pitchers in the American League, but Shields should put up good numbers and I think he should definitely set a goal for himself of making the All-Star team and contending for the Cy Young Award.
 

Feel free to comment or e-mail me at raysexaminer@live.com

James Shields on retrosheet

James Shields on baseball reference

James Shields on fangraphs