Rays 2009 player preview: Grant Balfour

January 18, 9:05 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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If you ask most baseball experts who’s got the single best pitch in the game, most would respond that it’s Mariano Rivera’s cutter. Pretty hard to argue with that assessment. In 2008, however, you could make a good argument that the best pitch was Grant Balfour’s fastball.

FanGraphs has been keeping track of pitch type since 2005, so you can chart how often pitchers throw each type of pitch in their repertoire. Balfour led all of baseball (50 IP or more) in highest percentage of fastballs thrown – 91.3 percent. As a matter of fact only Danny Kolb of the 2005 Braves has thrown more fastballs (94.4%) since FanGraphs started publishing those numbers. Things didn’t go so well for Kolb in that ’05 season, but Balfour rode his fastball to glory for the Rays in ’08.

Here are some numbers to digest (all rankings are of pitchers with 50 IP or more):

• 1st in K/9 IP – 12.65
• 2nd in BAA - .145
• 3rd in WHIP – 0.89
• 4th in ERA – 1.54
• 4th in stranding runners – 87.9%
• 8th in BAA on balls hit in play - .233
• T-9th in fewest HRs allowed – 3

Those numbers got Balfour a big fat raise heading into the 2009 season. He and the Rays avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.4 million – a nice raise over the 500 Gs he made in ’08. The other benefit of Grant’s dominant ’08 performance – he will likely be the closer for the Rays on Opening Day. Troy Percival’s status is still up in the air after December back surgery and I don’t expect him to make it back for the start of the season.

Balfour should thrive in the role of closer. He got a small taste of closing last year – converting four out of five save chances. Balfour’s intensity and competitiveness will help him succeed in the ninth inning. I’ll always remember the lame "altercation" between Balfour and Orlando Cabrera in Game One of the 2008 Division Series. I still can’t understand what set Cabrera off in that game, but he ended up looking like Greedo after confronting Han Solo when Balfour struck him out. Punk. Just happens to be my favorite example of a pumped-up Balfour rising to the occasion in a big moment.

As great as Balfour was in ’08, he was not perfect. He hit a wall after the Division Series, allowing nine hits and seven walks in 5.1 innings of work between the ALCS and the World Series. That’s an atrocious WHIP of over 3.00 if you are scoring at home. Balfour pitched a career-high 58 major league innings in 2008, so durability is a big concern.

One other area that Balfour can improve is the much-ballyhooed first-pitch strike. Believe it or not, Balfour threw a first-pitch strike to only 49.6% of the hitters he faced in ’08. That number was seventh-worst among pitchers with 50 or more IP. It will be up to pitching coach Jim Hickey to help Grant improve on that number.

Of course I am the eternal optimist, but I believe the Percival injury situation will actually benefit both the Rays and Balfour. Balfour should become very comfortable in the closer role by the time Percival returns to action. When Troy comes back, the Rays can use both of them in the closer role to help keep Balfour fresh (both of them fresh actually).

My 2009 prediction: 62 G, 5-3, 2.88 ERA, 71 IP, 80 K, 25 SV, 1.05 WHIP

I’m going out on a limb there with the high number of games and innings, but I am confident Balfour will still be fresh and effective down the stretch in September and hopefully into October.

Grant Balfour on baseball reference

Grant Balfour on retrosheet

Grant Balfour on FanGraphs

Let me know what you think about the Mad Australian in a comment or e-mail me at raysexaminer@live.com