Rays 2009 player preview: Scott Kazmir

January 15, 9:16 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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New York Mets fans now recall the trade with the same bitterness as Chewbacca after losing to R2-D2 at space chess. The date was July 30, 2004 and the Mets had a record of 49-53 and were in fourth place in the NL East – seven games behind the division-leading Braves. What a perfect time to trade your best young pitcher in an attempt to get back into the pennant race! The (Devil) Rays were in third place in the AL East at the time, with a 48-54 record. They were smart enough to recognize that the season is pretty much lost, therefore it is time to look at acquiring some young talent for the future. Anyway, the Mets traded Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz to the Rays that day for wildman Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato. There’s the now legendary story of how Scott Kazmir became a Tampa Bay Ray in one of the worst trades in recent memory (or best from the Rays’ perspective) – and the rest is history.

By the way, the Mets also made another great trade that day – sending two good hitting prospects, including future Devil Ray Ty Wigginton, to the Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. The trades may look bad now, but hey, the Mets made a great run in 2004, finishing fourth in the NL East at 71-91, a mere 25 games behind the Braves.

Kazmir is now a two-time All Star and is looking to make the jump to an elite-level starting pitcher. There is no question Kazmir has the stuff to get there. He finished second to Tim Lincecum among all starters with 9.81 K/9 IP. The problem for Kazmir is that he was also tenth among starters with 4.14 BB/9 IP, leading to high pitch counts and early exits from games. I’ve already challenged Kaz to address this issue in 2009.

Marc Topkin of the St. Pete Times reported today that Kazmir has added 20 pounds of muscle this offseason. I know he played a little racquetball with ex-Ray Bobby Seay (go ahead, ask me how I know this), but generally his workouts must have been much harder than that. Hopefully this extra muscle will give Kazmir extra stamina in 2009 when facing lineups the second time around during games – he needs to be confident about attacking the strike zone and not trying to nibble through the fifth and sixth innings. Kazmir’s opponents only hit .149 against him the first time through the lineup. The number jumped to .271 the second time through. Naturally, hitters will find more success seeing a pitcher the second time in a game, but the difference shouldn’t be nearly that drastic.

Kazmir pitched lights-out at the Trop in 2008, but, much like most of the Rays’ staff, struggled mightily on the road. The home numbers – 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA, and an amazing .197 BAA. The road was not so kind – 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA, and a .244 BAA. If Kazmir, along with the other Rays’ starters, can figure out the road woes, then 2009 has a chance to be a breathtaking follow-up to the ’08 championship season.

Now it's time to turn to Kazmir’s true nemesis – the gopher ball. Kaz gave up 23 homers in only 152 innings in 2008, including 10 homers with two strikes on a batter. This was part of the source of Kaz’s road woes also – he gave up 14 big flies on the road and only 9 at home.

My take on Kazmir’s struggles – he works harder than necessary to get ahead of hitters, as evidenced by the staggering 18.05 pitches per inning Kazmir averaged in 2008. Kazmir gets a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn’t necessarily need to go for so many. On balls put in play, Kazmir ranked number 14 in lowest BAA in the majors. Pitching to contact should not make Kaz nervous and it will help keep him in games longer and lead to more wins. The 10 homers allowed with two strikes leads me to believe that Kaz is too close to the strike zone once he gets ahead. Maybe he just makes too many mistake pitches but he really needs to cut down on that number.

Wow, this is coming off as a really negative article. Time to put the positive spin on it. Kazmir will turn 25 next week. He will only get better. The question is how much will Kaz improve from 2008 to 2009?

My 2009 prediction: 30 GS, 192 IP, 14-8, 3.44 ERA, 195 K

The Kazmanian Devil should take some steps towards becoming a dominant starter in 2009, but I still feel his best is another year or two away.

Scott Kazmir on baseball reference

Scott Kazmir on retrosheet

Scott Kazmir on FanGraphs

Comment on my Kaz prediction, or e-mail me any questions - preferably dumb ones at raysexaminer@live.com