Will Carl Crawford really be a member of the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays?

November 10, 2:15 PMTampa Bay Rays ExaminerRob Quinn

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Has Crawford stolen his final base as a member of the Rays? AP/Bill Kostroun

The Rays officially exercised Carl Crawford’s $10 million option for the 2010 season on Monday according to Bill Chastain of MLB.com. Does this move answer any questions about Crawford’s future in Tampa Bay? Not really.

Crawford is coming off one of his best seasons after hitting .305 with 60 stolen bases in 2009. The three-time All Star would have easily fetched a salary far beyond $10 million on the open market. The decision for the Rays to pick up the option was a no-brainer. If they keep Crawford, they are getting him at $5-$10 million below market value for 2010.

The possibility of trading Crawford, however, is still high.

Crawford is the type of player who, at age 28, will likely be out of the Rays’ price range when it comes to a long-term contract. Expect Crawford to sign a 5-6 year deal when he hits free agency - taking him through age 34 - and expect the deal to be in the $16-$18 million per year range. The only way the Rays will be able to afford Crawford is if Carl gives them a significant hometown discount. Both sides want to get a deal done, but at some point the budget might just make it an impossible fit.

If (or when) the Rays decide a long-term deal for Crawford is not an option, they will absolutely be forced to trade him. They are not in a position to let a player like Crawford go and receive only a draft pick in return – which is what would happen if Crawford plays out 2010 with the Rays and then leaves via free agency.

The Rays’ window to negotiate with Crawford is closing rapidly. Ideally, they will sign him this offseason, because as the 2010 trade deadline gets closer, the Rays will lose leverage when negotiating with other teams for a trade. Fellow GM’s will know Andrew Friedman’s back will be up against the wall if Crawford is still a member of the Rays without a long-term deal next July. If it gets to that point, the return for Crawford will be far lower than it would be if the Rays make a deal this offseason. Friedman and company know this; therefore they absolutely will not let the situation get to that point.

Look for either a long-term deal to get done before March or, more likely, the Rays to trade Crawford before the start of the season.

It hurts to think about Carl Crawford leaving the Rays, but the more I think about the situation, the more it leads me to believe that even though the Rays picked up the option, Carl Crawford has played his final game in a Rays’ uniform.

How do you see this situation playing out? Let me know in a comment.

Have a great Rays' story idea for me? What should the Rays seek in return for Crawford? How about a closer, a catcher, and a young starting pitcher? (Buster Posey, Brian Wilson, Madison Bumgarner? – Keep dreaming!) E-mail me at raysexaminer@live.com