
The Red Sox finished off a 2-0 win over the Rays in Game One of the ALCS tonight and it’s time to analyze what went wrong for the Rays. Before the game I issued my five keys for the Rays. Let’s revisit those and find out what exactly was the Rays’ undoing.
1. When it came to working Dice-K, the Rays started off well by drawing three walks to load the bases in the first inning. Unfortunately it was all downhill from there. They failed to score in the first and then let Matsuzaka breeze through seven innings before finally knocking him out in the eighth with no runs. There is no question that the Rays failed to accomplish the goal here.
2. James Shields pitched a great game for the Rays. He was burned by a leadoff walk and a bad-luck double on a check swing by Mark Kotsay in the fifth. He came close to leaving down 1-0, but then J.P. Howell gave up a double to Kevin Youkilis off of Carl Crawford’s glove to give the Red Sox the 2-0 lead. The Rays were still within reach, down two runs, so Shields should not feel too bad about his outing. Tonight, however, it was just not enough. I’ll give the Rays half a point on this one.
3. We knew going in that Dice-K would allow some walks. The key would be for the Rays to turn the walks into runs on the scoreboard. The Rays failed miserably in this area. Three walks in the first inning, no runs. That was the blown opportunity that cost the Rays the game tonight.
4. The Rays had a great chance to get back in the game when Boston went to the bullpen. The Rays had first and second with nobody out in the eighth when Terry Francona brought in Hideki Okajima to face Carlos Pena. Pena swung at a 3-0 pitched and flew out to right. Then Justin Masterson came in to face Evan Longoria. These are the matchups that the Rays are going to need to take advantage of if they are going to win this series. Longoria couldn’t come through, grounding into an inning-ending double play. Since hitting two homers in Game One of the Division Series against the White Sox, Longoria is 1 for 16 with eight strikeouts and zero extra-base hits. He seemed to have no confidence at the plate tonight and this has me very concerned.
5. The Rays did a good job keeping Ellsbury and Pedroia off base. Pedroia walked once and had a single, but Ellsbury went 0 for 5. Put it together and it is an OBP of .222. If Ellsbury and Pedroia finish this series with a combined OBP of .222, the Rays will probably come out on top.
Well, of my five keys to the game the Rays succeeded in one and a half of them. The result was predictable, a loss. Dice-K was brilliant tonight; you have to give him a ton of credit for that. Even so, the Rays still had a chance to get back in the game, but couldn’t come up with the big hit. The good news for the Rays, however, is that Game Two is tomorrow night so there’s a chance to redeem this loss and quickly forget about it.