The great recovery

May 11, 10:14 AMSF Environmental Policy ExaminerThomas Fuller

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I got started as an analyst because I got lucky and called this Internet thingy a year in advance. I was living in Italy and became very popular with some big companies because I guessed that the impact would be larger than the other consultants they were listening to. (Interestingly, I always said that the real key to the Internet was what it would do on a local level more than what it would do globally. I wonder if Examiner.com is proof or negation of my idea?)

So let's find out if I'm lucky or prescient. I truly believe that this country (at least--might well be the whole world) is on the verge of a Great Recovery. I think that growth is going to be so strong over the next 10 years that our biggest problem will be inflation. I also think that personal incomes are going to grow dramatically--much higher than they did in the 90s.

Wish this world had a fast forward button so we could see if I'm right. Since we don't, let me explain my reasoning:

The next boom will (again) be technology led. Nanotechnology, bio-technology and robotics. The first sector that will drive the adoption will be healthcare. It will be bigger than the Internet boom. Maybe three times bigger. Maybe more--the three technologies will interact.

President Obama's stimulus package will work. Spending on infrastructure will speed further growth. Investment in alternative energy will pay big dividends--and not only in alternative energy.

Over the past 40 years, personal income in this country has stagnated. Other analysts have focussed on who's president or whose party is in power and missed the obvious. Incomes have stagnated because millions of women entered the workforce and out-competed men by doing better (by and large) work for lower (more's the pity) wages. This will now begin to reverse as the women who want (or need) to work are working (not counting this recession, which I think will start to lift in September of this year), and the workforce starts to see the Baby Boom head for the door.

I think those three big facts will outweigh the myriad complicating factors that are confusing us and obscuring the bigger picture.

I'll try and pick out some directional pointers so anyone who wants to can see if I'm right--I've done my homework, but at the end of the day this kind of call is more instinctive than anything else.

I do think it'll be a bit of a wild ride...