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Does Bing Travel's Farecast work?
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We reported last week about our findings of the best fares from Chicago to three domestic and three international locations using three travel meta sites – Kayak, Mobissimo and Bing Travel.
When it came to the domestic destination searches, Bing Travel’s Farecast technology – which predicts whether your found fare will raise, lower, or stay the same in the next seven days – was comforting. So much so that, in our opinion, it was the reason that it edged out the competition.
But is it accurate?
Sure, searching for airfare is a little like gambling…try again tomorrow and your luck could be totally different. So maybe results on three destinations out of roughly a kajillion aren’t much of a cross segment to test. But still, it’s a start. Here’s what we found:
CHICAGO to NEW YORK
Best fare on first search: $191
Bing Travel best fare one week later: $199
Was Farecast right? YES. A week ago, Farecast predicted the fare would hold steady, within $15 of the original fare, which it did.
CHICAGO to MIAMI
Best fare on first search: $210
Bing Travel best fare one week later: $210
Was Farecast right? NO. A week ago, Farecast turned in a lowest fare of $235 (Kayak and Mobissimo turned in the lower price of $210) and said to wait, that fares would most likely drop by $37.
CHICAGO to LOS ANGELES
Best fare on first search: $340
Bing Travel best fare one week later: $330
Was Farecast right? ALMOST. A week ago, Farecast said they were 89% sure the fare would drop more than $50. Clearly, it didn’t drop that much, but it did drop.
CHICAGO to LONDON
Best fare on first search: $771 (Bing Travel fare: $839)
Bing Travel best fare one week later: $1008
Was Farecast right? NO. Farecast’s prediction was to wait, that the fare would drop, which it clearly didn’t.
The verdict: Well, that's up to you to decide, dear reader. It appears to be more or less a draw. Maybe a search a day sooner or a day later would turn in different results that were more on target with Bing’s price predictor. If anything, just like when you belly up to the blackjack table, maybe all you can do is cross your fingers and hope luck is on your side.
Note: We used the same search details and dates as in our original articles. Read more about our findings of domestic airfare and international airfare. Read more about the companies here.
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