Manny Pacquiao vs Miguel Cotto: The breakdown

November 7, 5:55 PMNorfolk Boxing ExaminerGlenn Wilson

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Cotto-Pacquiao clash on November14.
Top Rank / Chris Farina

The fight of the year is at T minus 7 days and counting. Every writer, every boxing expert and everyone that has ever seen a boxing match has an opinion on the outcome of the Manny Pacquiao-Miguel Cotto fight.

Each man has enormous strenghts and possibly, a hidden weakness or two. I will breakdown both fighters and what they bring to the table and what they may bring that their opponent has not faced before.

Physically: Miguel, Puerto Rico,  is one year younger than Manny, Philippines,  but is only half an inch taller. Their reach is the same. The biggest difference in the two is speed. Manny's speed and power were suppose to disappear as he moved up in weight. I guess someone forgot to tell Manny that.

Miguel's advantage may be on the inside. He has fought at this weight for years. His advantage comes in the fact that he has fought some of the strongest welterweights in the division. He has garnered a ton of experience by fighting the Clotteys and Margaritos of the division.

Manny's speed will allow him to jump in and out of harm's way. This will be the blueprint for the rounds that Pacquiao wins. Cotto's best chance will be when he catches Manny coming in with left hooks, which he will do to win rounds.

Advantage: Pacquiao.

Power: Most will automatically say that Manny has been the more devastating puncher as of late. It is hard to argue that point when watching his highlight reel knockout of Ricky Hatton. But some say that the Hatton fight was at junior welterweight and even with his total domination of Oscar De La Hoya, he was unable to put the dehydrated De La Hoya on his butt. Speed and combinations are what will bag the most rounds for Manny, not power.

Cotto seems to be the polar opposite of Pacquiao. He has stopped Michael Jennings and Alfonzo Gomez, but each of those fights could be considered  tune ups, as neither presented any real challenge for Miguel. Cotto is still a strong welterweight, his punches seem to be of the thudding variety, which could feel even more powerful against a smaller opponent.

Advantage: Cotto.

Experience: This is a dead heat. Each man has faced the best in their respected divisions, with Manny venturing above his division numerous times to find victory. The best way to seperate these two is to look at how each fared when faced with adversity.

Manny is Manny. His skills make others look slow. By that I mean other than Juan Manuel Marquez, he really hasn't faced any fighters that made him dig down deep to find victory. Over the last three years Pacquiao has beat a faded Marco Antonio Barrera and a hand picked, slow beltholder in David Diaz. Each was made to order for Manny. De La Hoya should have presented Pacquiao with some problems, but came into the ring dehydrated and never offered Manny any resistance. His crowning glory came against the hard charging Hatton. Manny used speed and power to take the world junior welterweight belt in spectacular fashion.

Cotto is the poster child for tough fights. His critics will say that the fights are tough because Miguel has been overrated. Cotto followers will say that his fights are tough because he only fights the best fighters. I personally believe that Miguel has had more difficulty since he became more of a boxer. He back peddles and then sets up for his next barrage. He is better when he is on the offensive, as he was when he fought Zab Judah.

Advantage: Cotto

Defense: This is a short list. Manny's defense is his offense, when he is not throwing punches, his foot speed allows him to escape trouble.

Cotto's defense is sometimes overlooked. His brutal wars have left his face a mess on more than one occasion, which makes many believe his defense is bad. He has a decent defese, his problem is his that he seems to suffer bad cuts during fights.

Advantage: Pacquiao.

Weaknesses: Pacquiao's weakness is still an unknown. Many believe it could be how he reacts when hit by a true welterweight. Cotto should be able to test this theory on more than one occasion next Saturday night. Since Marquez stunned Manny in their second fight, no one has come close to landing anything of significance on him.

Many think Cotto's weakness will be in his inability to handle Manny's speed. But remember, he was able to deal with Mosley and Judah, two fighters who have comparable speed to Pacquiao. Miguel's problem will be the scar tissue around his eyes. If it starts bleeding will Manny be able to land enough punches to open it further, leaving the ref no choice, but to stop the fight?

Outcome: Fans say Pacquiao or Cotto by first round kayo. Can it happen? Sure, but that is more wishful thinking than anything else. Pacquiao will come out gunning to do early damage. He will land, but Cotto will withstand Manny's charges. In rounds 3 and 4, Cotto will land some lefts that get Pacquiao's attention. By mid fight the pace will slow as both look for openings. Miguel is like a football team that is hellbent on running the ball. They may get behind early, but eventually they start seeing progress in what they are doing. I think Manny's speed in the early rounds makes the difference though. Manny wins the first two rounds and they split the rest. Pacquiao by close, very close decision.