
Here's the surf forecast for Santa Cruz for the July 4 holiday weekend. Part 1 is the raw numbers, part 2 is the analysis and a few hints on potential hazards.

Sources:
Data for this forecast are from NOAA and FNMOC WW3 models.

Friday:
Best Call:
For super dawn patrolers, the low-tide spots in town will be the places to be early in the day. By 9AM, as the tide rushes in, expect these breaks to shut down from too much water. From mid-morning to mid-afternoon beach breaks in the south county and point and reef breaks in the north county will offer the best chances. Wave heights won't be spectacular; if you get a head high or better wave consider yourself extremely lucky.
Saturday:
Hazards:
Watch for exploded and unexploded firework debris and litter on the beaches, the more remote the beach the better the chances are that someone will be igniting illegal pyro devices. Smoldering campfires are likely as people informally camp on the sand or rave into the night. There will be broken glass from beverage containers, cans, paper waste and more left behind. It's annoying how many people can carry all the provisions onto the beach, but can't find it in themselves to cart the garbage back out again.
Best Call:
Surfing in town at dawn will be a good call, and this might hold until about 10AM or so. After that, south county beach breaks and north county points will be the places to check. Chest high waves will be hard to find, waist high is more likely. The waves will be rideable, but bring a summer board like a log or a fish.
Sunday:
Hazards:
Expect even more firework debris and litter on the beaches, leftover from the previous two evenings. There just is not enough law enforcement to hold this activity in check. Camping and partying will be popular activities in the overnight hours, so expect campfire remains, beer bottles and cans and other unsightly litter. Again, the more remote stretches of sand host the most people for these celebrations.
Best Call:
Similar conditions to Saturday, but possibly a touch bigger waves can be found. Dawn in town, mid-morning to mid-afternoon out of town. Chest high waves might be available to the persistent surfers.
Summary:
Small but fun waves will be here for the long weekend. It won't be flat, but it also won't be epic. Have a good time, and play safe in the ocean. Don't attempt things beyond your abilities, always wear a wetsuit, and don't panic if conditions turn adverse. Surf with a buddy and you should do fine.