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Five things that need to happen for the Texans to win the division
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The Texans defense needs to become a force for the team to reach its goals (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
For the record, I'm not on board with the pundits who are predicting the Texans will win the AFC South.
I am on record in many places with a 9-7 prediction for the Texans this season so I need to stay consistent, even though the rules for this collaborative piece with my AFC South cohorts challenged me to think outside the box a bit.
Thinking outside the box means talking about division championship for a team that's never finished above .500 or third place in the division.
So what has to happen for the Texans to make that quantum leap?
The first thing that came to mind was divine intervention. But I don't think I can use that one here.
So here's my best shot at the five things (realistically) that need to happen for the Texans not only to make the playoffs for the first time, but to win the division outright.
1) Win on the road: Many people don't realize that the Texans are 12-4 at home over the past two seasons. But with back to back 8-8 seasons, that means they are 4-12 on the road during the same period. If they want to win the division, they need to start having some success on the road and win games they haven't won in the past. 11-5 might win the AFC South this season and if the Texans can improve on their home record from 6-2 last year to 7-1 this year, it will only take a 4-4 record on the road to be a serious contender in the South. But, going 7-1 at home means you need to beat two teams from this group of three at home [Indy, Tennessee, New England] plus all of the rest.
2) Get off to a fast start and sustain it: The schedule lines up in the Texans favor early with three of four at home. They can't afford to sputter out of the gate again and expect to be a serious contender. The Texans are a team that could really gain confidence and swagger (which is sorely lacking) if they put together a winning streak early.
3) Get the Titans/Colts monkey off their backs: The Texans are 4-24 all time against the Titans and Colts. Enough said.
4) Frank Bush is dubbed the newest defensive genius in the league: Remember, I'm thinking outside the box here. Bush's defense has to hit the ground running and become dominant. There's no time for gelling or ramping up. They need to dominate from the get-go The Texans haven't had a good defense since 2002.
5) Finish plus 10 in turnover margin instead of minus 10: The offense and defense share equal responsibility in this one. The Texans offense was horrible last year with their giveaways, but the defense wasn't playing takeaway either.
If you noticed that I didn't mention injuries, that wasn't an oversight, it was more of an assumption going in. If it makes you feel good, put that one on the list at 5a because Injuries to a few key players can derail any team's season and open doors for another as we all know.
My record prediction for the AFC South:
Tennessee 11-5
Indianapolis 10-6
Houston 9-7
Jacksonville 6-10
For more info: Titans 5 things; Colts 5 things
Off to Pittsburgh!
This will be my last entry until late Friday as I travel to Pittsburgh tomorrow to attend the NFL kickoff game between the Steelers and the Titans. I'll be a Steelers fan for a day as I root against our AFC South rivals. I've been fortunate to have visited many NFL stadiums over the years but this will be my first trip to Heinz Field and I'm really looking forward to it. I hear we have really good seats...
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