Five reasons why the Texans won't make the playoffs

July 12, 6:25 PMHouston Texans ExaminerAlan Burge

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If there's any player that deserves a taste of playoff football, it's #80

Forgive me but if  I see another article proclaiming the Texans are playoff bound, I think I'm going to have to organize a heavy duty intervention.

I'm talking about news filters that would make Ahmanidejad proud.

Don't get me wrong.  Being in the discussion is much better than coming off 2-14, but this cloned lemming parade of 'team to watch' and  'biggest surprise' articles has gotten very old.

Hit Google News using "houston texans" and "playoffs" as your search criteria and you will see what I mean. 

Better yet, don't do it, and listen to what I have to say.

Until they prove otherwise, the Texans are still the team I saw in December.  That's the team that beat a 13-1 Titans team one week, then turned around and lost to a 3-11 Oakland team the following week, and had to win five of its last six to reach .500 for the second consecutive season.

Most pundits predicting a Texans breakthrough playoff season point to their 5-1 finish but I'm not buying it.  It's fools gold until they; a) really start to turn around a 4-24 all-time record against Indianapolis and Tennessee, b) improve on a 4-12 road record over the past two seasons, and c) win some meaningful games in December.

So why do the masses seem to be convinced that the Texans of 2009 are going to be better than the Texans of 2008?  That's a rhetorical question of course since the masses aren't in a position to know.

Are Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin going to be difference makers in their rookie seasons?  Will Antonio Smith's Super Bowl swagger still be there in November?  Is Matt Schaub going to stay healthy for at least 12 games for the first time in his career?  Will a suspect secondary hold together behind Frank Bush's 'more aggressive' front seven?  Will Gary Kubiak win more than one coach's challenge all year?

No one really knows the answers to those questions, but if the answer is 'no' to more than a few, there's really no reason to believe the Texans will be any better this year than they were the past two seasons.

So in the spirit of Newton's Third, here are five reasons why the Texans won't make the playoffs in 2009:

1. Injuries

Let's get the obvious out of the way first.   Yes, this applies to any team but the Texans have been hurt by it in the past and until they can overcome key injuries and still play at a high level, this remains at the forefront of limiting factors for a successful Texans season.  The Texans can't afford to lose Matt Schaub (or Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Duane Brown or Eric Winston for that matter) for more than a third of a season and expect to be a serious playoff contender.  Same goes for Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans.

2. Defense slow to gel

Everyone seems to be foaming at the mouth because of Frank Bush's new "aggressive" defense that has yet to play a down.  Talk is cheap.   If the Texans defense fails to come together quickly (like during Week 1), and take advantage of a favorable early season schedule, then we'll be right back in 'fight for .500' mode quicker than you can say 'tickets for sale - face value.'  Buddy Ryan's Oilers started off 1-4 in 1993 but got it together in time to finish 12-4, but this defense isn't the '93 Oilers.  Implicit in all this is overall improvement of the defense from its lowly statistical standing of past seasons.

3. Players buying into the hype 

I'm pretty sure the players are above all the fluff that's being written and said about them, but I remember last year at a remote asking Eric Winston how they were going to guard against a letdown against the Raiders after beating the Titans.  He just kind of laughed at me.  The coaches need some negative locker room material to counter all this playoff talk.  How about this article?  This team is a slip-up against the Jets from being the same old Texans.   I think most players get it.  I think the goal of 'nothing less than the playoffs' is the right thing.  They just need to keep their heads straight about it all. 

4. The return of the great offensive mistake machine

The Texans were 3rd in the NFL in yards gained last year with 382 yards per game, and 5th in the league in time of possession at over 32 minutes per game, but they were also 4th worst in the league in turnovers with a minus 10 margin, and only 17th in the league in scoring despite the yards gained and time of possession.  The Texans offense was also 7th worst in the league in touchdowns scored inside the red zone with a paltry 45.9% of their trips inside the opponents 20 resulting in TDs.  Does that make them the #3 offense in the league?  Not by my standards.

5. A slow start

This relates to #2 but deserves its own mention.  The Texans open the season with three of their first four at home where they are 12-4 over the past two seasons.   A 4-3 record heading into November is the absolute low end of acceptability while a  2-2 record in November would be reason to celebrate (given a 4-3 record or better heading into the month).  Winning streaks breed confidence among players and it's important for the Texans to get on the right side of the win-loss ledger early.  The Texans have yet to walk into an opponent's stadium with a legitimate sense of swagger - ever.