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Another day, another playoff prediction
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New defensive coordinator Frank Bush holds one of the keys to Texans success in 2009
This is the time of year when predictions for the upcoming season are in full gear - mainly because there's not much else to talk about.
The draft is done, OTAs and minicamps are about to begin, or have already begun in some cases, and training camp is a mere 2 1/2 months away.
I usually don't pay much attention to off-season predictions, but it's good in terms of generating discussion and to see where your team stacks up in the eyes of the national media (which are generally guys who watch your team a lot less than you do)
One writer will predict your team to make the playoffs and he's a genius while another says your team is soft and going nowhere and he's a (pick an expletive).
Don Banks of SI.com, who alternates between genius and expletive for many Texans fans, is the latest of the 'mainstream' NFL writers to predict the Texans will make the playoffs.
Genius. Insightful. What else is there to say?
While supporting his case for the Texans playoff run in '09, Banks wrote something that caught my attention - and I like when that happens.
Banks wrote, "it might surprise you to learn that only five AFC teams own more regular-season victories than the Texans' 16 in the past two seasons."
'But don't confuse me with facts,' you say. Coach Kubiak is supposed to be on the hot seat.
Well, actually he is on the hot seat - as much as any coach entering his fourth year who has yet to seriously challenge for the playoffs should be on the hot seat.
Kubiak gets it. So does Bob McNair. While it may not be playoffs of bust this year for Kubiak, depending on how it all plays out, the playoffs are most certainly the goal of the team this season based on almost every interview I've heard or read coming out of Reliant Park this spring.
But season record and playoff predictions for any team need the *if they can stay away from serious injuries* qualifier. That's especially true with the Texans who would have serious difficulty overcoming prolonged injuries to Matt Schaub or Steve Slaton this season
Sorry, but I'm not sold on Dan Orlovsky yet. Or Chris Brown, Jeremiah Johnson or Arian Foster.
In addition to avoiding injuries, the Texans need to avoid a slow start.
For the past two seasons, (you know, the two seasons when the Texans have won more games than 10 other AFC teams) the Texans had a 3-5 record after 8 games. That kind of thing can't continue if the Texans are serious about taking the next step and want to become more than a pre-season tease, as Banks calls them.
Another key will be the ability of the defense to turn things around quickly.
The Texans have a new defensive coordinator installing new schemes. There is a new defensive line coach coaching new techniques. There's a new secondary coach that the players will have to get used to. There will be new faces in the starting lineup; guys like Antonio Smith, Brian Cushing, and Cato June.
That might all be good - but it's change and with change it will take a bit of time for it all to gel - and it's time that Kubiak and Co. don't have unless they can stay on the right side of the win-loss ledger for an entire season.
With three of its first four games at home, the Texans need a quick start. A 2-2 record after four games this year won't be good enough.
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