At this point of the season I'd rather be talking about important games, especially on game day, but unfortunately the way this season has gone it's allowing us to wander off into 'next year' discussion once again all too soon.
All the talk about Dunta Robinson's possible unrestricted free agency sent me to the player databases and other websites over the past few days to see what other Texans players are about to enter the various categories of free agent status.
First it's probably a good idea to review a few basic definitions for the free agency terms we'll be throwing around, such as Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), Restricted Free Agent (RFA, Exclusive Rights Free Agent (ERFA), and Franchise Player.
In a nutshell, UFAs have the most freedom and can negotiate with any team after their contract expires (player contracts expire on the same date - on or around March 1 each year). The only way a UFA can be restricted is through tags such as the Franchise Tag that could possibly be used on Dunta. We talked about that at length in my last article.
RFAs can negotiate with any team but can be restricted by their current teams if the team makes a qualifying offer, or tender, before a specified date. There are four levels of qualifying offers which involve draft pick compensation if the player decides to accept an offer from another team.
ERFAs have the least ability to move and if a team wants to keep a player who's an ERFA, they usually can by just offering them a future contract before March 1.
So after checking the NFLPA website and doing some cross-checks with other sites, I created a quick and dirty list of Texans players who will enter free agency on or about March 1, 2009 if their contracts are not extended before then.
Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA)
Restricted Free Agents (RFA)
Notable Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA)
The most obvious needs to address on the list are Dunta Robinson and Owen Daniels. We don't know what will happen with Robinson (as we covered in depth yesterday) but I'm confident the Texans will take care of Daniels.
With four DBs on the UFA list, expect the Texans to try to retain one or more of those players. None are going to command a lot on the open market but it will come down to having enough bodies in the secondary going into camp next year. I like what Nick Ferguson and Eugene Wilson have done this year, taking their turn in the revolving door at safety.
When you start talking about signing or re-signing free agents, you have to factor in salary cap (for at least another year or two). For that, I'll reference the authoritative Texans fan site when it comes to salary cap, Keith Weiland's inthebullseye.com.
Keith is showing the Texans around $30 million under the cap next year and while that sounds like a lot, it only represents the cap value of the 38 Texans players who are currently under contract in '09. So some of that cap space will be eaten up by signings to fill out next year's roster.
Other cap space will be eaten up by dead money if players like Morlon Greenwood and Anthony Weaver are not kept around because of their high numbers. Yet another factor is if the Texans use the Franchise Tag on Dunta Robinson which would take up $10 million of that cap space if the Texans are unable to sign Robinson to a long term deal (if they decide to keep him).
Next year, a couple of key names on the free agent list will be DeMeco Ryans and Kevin Walter if they are not extended before then.
If anyone sees any errors on the free agent list, don't hesitate to contact me. It was put together quickly and there could be a mistake or two.