
I wrote In January, “The current application season seems to be showing that more students are snubbing pricey private colleges and turning to state schools where their dollars go further. Barmak Nassirian, spokesman for the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers cautions, however, that although “we’re all speculating that privates will see a decline while publics will gain…it’s way too early to know.”
But it’s not too early to examine what that scenario, if it does indeed play out, will mean in April when those decision letters arrive. State schools are particularly attractive to residents, who are typically charged much less than out-of-state students. That means colleges will have a larger pool of local students, and the admissions criteria for those students will toughen. Thus the state-university-as-safety-school rule might not apply. In fact, those schools could become more competitive across the board, no matter where the applicant lives.”
The news is in: the scenario has played out, and those state schools, once considered safe bets by in-state students, are harder to get into. Consider these numbers from Connecticut schools: Central Connecticut State University has had a 13% increase in applications, and for Eastern Connecticut State University it was 12%. (http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-collegeboom0301.artmar01,0,3520764.story)
New York schools are experiencing the same scenario. At SUNY New Paltz, the application deadline hasn’t passed (it’s April 1) and already the number is up 12%. At Oregon State University and the University of Cinncinati the stories are the same. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/nyregion/02suny.html?_r=1&hp
The cost-saving trend has expanded to transfers as well. Rutgers University has seen a 52% increase from 2008 in transfer applications (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aI_zIl7sTaVM&refer=home) from students at private colleges and at public out-of-state schools outside New Jersey. Indiana, Texas, and Florida’s State universities are also experiencing higher numbers of transfer requests.
I’ll end with my advice from January: “Juniors and their parents, as well as guidance counselors, need to keep an eye on this trend. If state schools do experience much higher application numbers while private colleges’ numbers decrease, the process of school selection is going to be markedly different than it was just a year ago. Next fall, pay attention to the reported number of applications and acceptance rates of the schools you’re interested in, and compare them with the 2008-2009 season. The colleges you once classified as safeties and reaches could be shifting from those categories.”