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Supply, demand, and Obama's education goals - Part 1
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This weekend President Obama called for American students to spend longer in school in order to become more competitive with foreign students.This comes on top of a goal stated earlier this year of every American student getting some college education. In short, he wants Americans to become the most educated nation on earth.
It sounds nice, but is it realistic? There is reason to be concerned about America's future, to be sure. Rising education rates in other countries are helping fuel the current off-shoring boom. Rising test scores suggest that children in other nations are getting a better education. Scientific and technical advances are being made rapidly across the globe, not just in America.
But is the solution producing a highly-trained work force? The law of supply and demand suggests otherwise. Unless there is also a corresponding increase in demand for workers with college training, three likely changes may occur in America. The qualifications for even low-end and blue-collar jobs will increase to ridiculous levels. The pay rate for existing jobs will remain steady or even decrease. The quality of college education will likely decrease, while the cost of education will increase. Let us consider each of these in turn.
The qualifications for jobs will increase
While the trend is for a continued increase in the number of white-collar to blue collar jobs in America, that shift must inherently slow over time. There are simply too many blue-collar jobs that must be done, and cannot be outsourced or off-shored. Try outsourcing garbage collection, driving buses, or waiting tables to India. A certain number of blue-collar jobs that require no college training will always remain.
Furthermore, having a college degree does not necessarily ensure that one will get a job, as far too many graduates are finding out lately. Education only helps if one obtains a degree in a field where there is a demand. In fields where the demand is low a college degree becomes largely irrelevant. If every candidate for a position has a similar level of education, employers will have to find other ways to select between candidates. All having a degree will mean is that employers can use that, however irrelevant, to screen out candidates who do not have it.
The result could soon be that the hiring requirement for forklift operators is a four-year degree, and a degree in engineering gets greater consideration over a degree in English literature, even if both are largely irrelevant to the position. In positions that already require a four-year degree it means that successful candidates may need to pursue post-graduate degrees in order to qualify.
For readability purposes, this article has been broken up into three parts. To continue with the article, click here.
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