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Mavs 2009: Celtics 2009, collaboration extravaganza
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Allen Iversons is Ball. (AP Photo/Alik Keplicz)
For our second collaborative foray, we've recruited Mark Rawden, the vaunted Boston Celtics Examiner, to give his take on his team, the state of the East, and so on. And let me say, by the way, that it's been a true pleasure to work first, with Kenny Samsel, the Orlando Magic Examiner, and now with Mark. In addition to getting the skinny on two teams likely to be in the title mix this year, it's an excellent chance for me to talk shop with some well-versed, talented pundits-- and good writers-- about something we all love.
So check Mark out, over here. With any luck, what happens with the Celtics will be relevant to all of us....
Without further ado:
First, the somewhat silent Elephant in the room, and I mean no disrespect. On the one hand, you could say that the East has won 3 of the last 6 championships—and certainly the East has come a long way. On the other hand, the truth is that besides the top three in the East (of which you guys, certainly, are one), there’s not much in the way of championship contenders. Miami and Atlanta, the fourth and fifth teams, played a putrid series, for example, and then got swept by the Cavs. Do you think playing in the East, playing against weaker opposition, can explain the Cavs struggles against the Magic—though many thought the Cavs couldn’t be stopped, based on their W-L-- and the Magic’s struggles against the Lakers? Or did Orlando just play great against the Cavs and poorly against the Lakers? Or are the Lakers better than both teams?
To put it simply, the West is flat out better. Look at the rosters. Look at the records. The West has an embarrassment of riches to flaunt while the East has a few contenders and a lot of garbage. The reasons for the split in titles are that a) the East’s contenders are strong, and b) the East’s top seeds have an easier road to the Finals, allowing them to stay healthy and rest up. Of course, the latter didn’t necessarily apply to the Celtics, as they went to Game 7 at every stop of their championship run, but Doc still had the chance to rest his guys often down the stretch, and that rest is equally as crucial as rest in between playoff rounds.
Every team has holes, but it seems like the Eastern Conference’s elites have holes that are more glaring than those of their Western Conference counterparts. The Magic were thin at point guard and shooting guard last year, and Dwight Howard has a limited offensive repertoire. While Dwight impressed during the Finals, these issues were exposed against the Lakers. The Cavs had no help for LeBron in the paint, and the Celtics received poor play from their bench. What, in contrast, were the Nuggets’, Blazers’, and Lakers’ main problems? Nothing of great significance.
This year, the same talent disparity applies. The Cavs, Magic, Pistons, and Celtics got better, but they mostly accomplished that via poaching from other Eastern Conference teams. Until they start making deals like that with Western Conference clubs, and the bottom feeders are able to inject their rosters with better rookies (this past draft’s main prize went, of course, to the West), the East will continue to struggle to catch up.
How have the additions and losses your team suffered (or enjoyed!) in the off-season changed your expectations for next season, if at all?
If KG is OK and the remaining members of the Big Three stay healthy, then the Celtics will be better than they were last year. Boston added Sheed and Marquis Daniels and said goodbye to Leon Powe, Mikki Moore, Gabe Pruitt, and Stephon Marbury. Other than the loss of Powe, this was an excellent off-season. Expectations are high amongst Boston fans, even though experts seem to think that the Celtics are, at best, #2 or #3 in the East.
If the Celtics had simply stood pat and re-signed Baby, I would have expected a good year, probably #2 in the East. Now, I’m expecting a #1 seed as long as everyone stays healthy, which won’t be easy when you have an aging core and your top bench player is in his mid-30’s.
Back in early August, I wrote an article breaking down the Celtics’ schedule. I had Boston winning 54 games, but that was before Big Baby was –resigned, and before Marquis Daniels officially joined the squad. And while I said there that the win total would increase with the additions of those two players, the number could easily shrink because of injury (and was set conservatively from the outset due simply to the risk of injury).
What do you think the biggest unanswered question for your team is, going into next season?
In this order:
1. Backup point
2. Health
3. Backup small forward
I’d say backup point guard. Other than that, the biggest question is whether or not this team can stay healthy, but there won’t be an answer to that until the season is over. I didn’t know if it counted as an unanswered question, but it’s a big enough issue to warrant mentioning.
As for backup point, the idea right now is for Daniels and Eddie House to handle that role to some degree, with the other playing at the two. Not a bad idea, but I was hoping that the Celtics would add another point, allowing them to run out a mix of the new guard, House, and Daniels at the one, two, and three.
Backup small forward is also an issue, but the Celtics need to let some of their young guys grow, and Bill Walker is our best young player (other than starters Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins) and he needs to get some quality time on the floor. The Celtics can live with him as the backup small forward, based on the talent that is around him. However, it would have been nice to get Bruce Bowen, but he’s officially retired (for now).
What are you most excited about?
Watching KG back on the floor, and watching Sheed mesh with the team. Sheed is an excitable player, and I can’t fathom what it will be like when he and KG are on the floor together. One of them may spontaneously combust.
How far do you think you can go next season, and what makes it different from last season?
All the way, added depth, and health. If Boston stays mostly healthy, with all three members of the Big Three active for the entire post-season, they can go all the way. They have one of the top three rosters in the game, if not the best, and the only reason in my mind why “experts” aren’t picking them is to cover themselves in case Boston’s age catches up with them and injuries ensue. Trust me, I’m a Mets fan, and I know what injuries can do to a team.
You never know when the injury bug is going to hit, and how the team will (or won’t) recover.
As for depth, Boston had to rely on Mikki Moore, Big Baby, Brian Scalabrine, and Stephon Marbury when the starters came out of the game. Now, it’ll be Sheed, Big Baby, and Daniels. That’s a significant improvement.
How worried are you about the health of your team?
I’d say very, since that is the only thing that may end up holding Boston back. Perk has a nagging shoulder problem, Rondo plays a Dwyane Wade-style of ball without the added muscle size that Wade has (although that still hasn’t kept him from missing significant time as well), and the Big Three are getting up there in age. You can’t tell these guys to change their styles of play, since it helped them win a title in 2008. As a result, Doc will simply need to keep his rotations active, and use his bench considerably. If he plays the Big Three for 38-40 mpg each, then he’s a fool who deserves to see this season fall to pieces. I’d even prefer to see them all top out at 35.
What’s the deal with Rondo? Do the Celts have a future?
Rondo is a great defender, rebounder, slasher, and facilitator. However, he’s a horrible shooter. This description was basically how his draft scouting report read, which means that he has not improved in the ways that Boston hoped that he would. He has improved in all areas to varying degrees, and is an extremely important piece to Boston’s success, but his lack of at least an average jump shot allows defenses to play off him, essentially hurting his driving and passing lanes. Until he improves that area of his game, his name will continue to come up in trade rumors, especially since it would make sense for Boston to sell high on him while he’s still young and maturing, and still has plenty of “potential.” If they wait a couple of years, then he’ll be fairly close to being a finished product, warts and all.
The Cs have a future, but it’ll be up to Danny Ainge to keep this roster a contender over the next couple of seasons. Ray Allen’s contract expires after his season, Pierce’s after next, and KG’s the year after that. Will he trade any of them? Sign them to extensions? Let them walk? Who knows. Ray has been good about staying out of the media and demanding an extension, and the acquisition of Marquis Daniels may be a sign that Ray is out after this year. Who knows.
But to reiterate my earlier point, the Celtics need to develop their younger guys. Perk and Rondo should be a part of the Celtics future, so they are solid members of the present and future core. Big Baby and Daniels may be as well. But guys like Bill Walker, J.R., Giddens, and rookie Lester Hudson need to see time on the floor so Boston knows what to do with them over the next couple of years. Otherwise, the teen years of this young century will begin with a bleak start, with Boston trying to scramble to replace the aging and/or departed members of the Big Three, much like they were when the Original Big Three were leaving town.
Kevin Garnett vs. Dirk Nowitzki, right now. One on one. Who wins?
That’s a tough call. I’d say KG because he’s such a great defender, and he can get his points from various spots on the floor. The latter can also be said for Dirk, but not the former. When playing one-on-one, you can’t rely on picks and other distractions in order to gain separation from your opponent and get your points. Dirk would have to play straight up, which would not bode well for him against one of the best defenders of the last ten years or so.
However, KG isn’t exceptional at creating his own shot, unlike Dirk. KG gets the ball fed to him in the post, off screens, or right at the elbow or baseline for a jumper. Dirk has moves and can penetrate. Still, I like KG in a close one.
Regardless, it would be a great pickup game to watch.
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