Mavericks 2009: The Shawn Marion Rumor

July 7, 6:43 PMDallas Mavericks ExaminerAndrew Tobolowsky

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Still a Maverick (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

If big things are going to happen soon, in Mavericks world, they’re going to happen real soon. The rumor is that the Mavs are going to try to get Marion from the Raptors. The reason this is easy enough is also the reason it’s not all that likely to happen.

The Raptors are going to sign Turkoglu, but they don’t have the cash unless they void all free agent contracts they’ve signed. Marion has one of these. So the word is the Raps would be happy to trade Marion for Stackhouse’s expiring contract and filler. My first thought upon looking at this was, terrific, the Mavs upgrade the team for a player they weren’t even going to play. And on Toronto’s side, I thought: “Why WOULDN’T they do that! If they just let Marion go, they get nothing!”

Then I realized that, in the very strange world of NBA salary cap maneuvering, in point of fact, the Raptors are trying to TRADE for nothing. A big ol’ hole. They want to trade a contract they’re going to dump for a contract that they can dump.

So the question then is, why WOULD they do that? Why bother trading a player you’re going to cut for a player you’re going to cut? Were the bureaucrats complaining that they didn’t have enough paperwork to fill out? It’s like that Family Guy where Peter’s going to take Lois out to dinner, but tells her to cook anyway because he doesn’t want her to get rusty. Illogical. That’s the NBA for you.

And to top matters off, as opposed to renouncing Marion for free, to buy Stackhouse out would cost them 2 mil that they, one, can’t afford, and two, otherwise wouldn’t have to pay.

So why WOULD they do it?

First, we can assume that the Mavs are throwing in a draft pick or two. No big deal, since recent events have made it quite clear that the Mavericks have a three year plan (not that they’re going to be good in three years, but more like one of Stalin’s five year plans, in that it’s going to be godawful in three years). And I think that’s reasonable. You don’t replace Dirk. Just doesn’t happen.

Second, the Raptors wouldn’t even be exploring this, since it does nothing for them (I mean, maybe a second round pick, maybe Antoine Wright, ESSENTIALLY nothing), if they didn’t want to do something nice for Marion. Presumably this is because of their time together in Phoenix. This counts as something nice for Marion because on the free agent market, he’d be unlikely to do better than the mid level extension (for NBA starters, see details of that in my last column), whereas thanks to Bird rights, the Mavs would be paying him more than he’d get if he was cut. So there’s hope yet.
Here’s why it’s unlikely: Hedo Turkoglu has already changed his mind about what team he’s going to. ACTUAL free agent signings begin tomorrow. Which means Toronto is going to be camping out on Turkoglu’s lawn and waking him up with a sheet of paper. Which means Marion has to be old news, by then.

Now, you CAN sign and trade a player even after you’ve renounced them, but we’ve seen this from Marion before. If he becomes a free agent, he’s going to do some shopping first and the Mavs aren’t going to wait—they can’t sign him as an FA. It’s quite possible he’ll go back to Colangelo empty-handed, with a bunch of MLE offers, asking to be S & T'd---but by then the Mavs may well have moved on.

So we’ll see.