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NBA 2009: Big Ol' Western Conference Preview
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Beaubois says your Earth means nothing to me (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
With the season coming so soon and yet so slowly, I figured it would be a nice time for me, like every other columnist in the world(even the political ones), to work up a little bit of a Western Conference preview. Because I have to have one too.
Pausing a moment to reflect on the whole practice, it occurs to me that the vast majority of these previews probably don’t differ too GREATLY from each other. The Lakers are almost always first. Probably very few people, however much they may like the offseason or draft of any of these teams, is very likely to put in the playoffs somebody like Golden State, Memphis, the Clippers, or the OKC, for the simple reason that almost everybody is going to have the Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets, Jazz and Suns in some configuration or another. The offseason explosion of everything championship caliber about the Rockets left an opening for maybe one of those teams but, in general, just not much room there. This is the general sentiment.
I can’t say I disagree.
And the reason this is okay, beyond being the most plausible forecast for the season, is because 1) championships are not handed out by columnists (they’re handed out by David Stern, in a dark room, with nothing else in it but a snifter of scotch and the Nielsen ratings) and 2) what most readers are actually interested in, and I’m certainly one of them, is what order a certain columnist chooses to put 2-8. And especially, we like to be appalled by the unthinkably poor grasp of facts and reality possessed by people who actually have a job!
Well, look, it will never be said that I shied away from putting a target on my back, but just so you know, I don’t get paid much.
So, here’s my take.
1) La Lakers:
If the Lakers hadn’t so overwhelmingly run away with a stacked conference last year, I’d be tempted not to put them here. Let me go on board with Mark Cuban, and get sued by the SEC. I mean, and voice my concern about Ron Artest in LA. No disrespect to Ron-Ron is meant, the man is a pitbull. He’s an excellent defender, still, and he’s no Antoine Wright on offense (for non-Maverick fans, that’s my way of saying “he’s not a completely worthless nonfactor on offense). The thing is, he’s just not a very cerebral player. I think that’s part of what makes him so good—he runs around, he pursues, he may bite your ear off. But he’ll gamble on steals, he’ll run around like a (large) chicken with his head cut off, he’ll shoot when he feels like it, Phil Jackson will hate him, and there’s at least reasonable odds that Kobe will eventually start trying to get him drunk, and send him to a strip club with Pacman Jones.
But. Trevor Ariza, while good, is not exactly the second coming of James Worthy. And, while teams 2-8 in last year’s playoffs were separated by a total of 6 games, the Lakers won the conference by 11 games. There was actually more of a gap between the Lakers and Denver, the second place team, than there was between Denver and Phoenix, who missed the playoffs. That’s absurd.
(No, you’re absurd)
On the other hand, it is distinctly possible that the Lakers will have to try to keep Andrew Bynum injured.
2) San Antonio
Why? Why not. Count me chronically unsold on Richard Jefferson, by the way. I just have a thing about guys who have no reason not to be their team’s go-to guy and still don’t score more than 20 a game. It’s just a thing. Rain down hate on me, I don’t care. It feeds me. It feeds me.
But look. You add a guy who can get points like R-Jeff CAN (I didn’t say he was bad, I just said….meh…)—and by the way he, like old teammate J-Kidd, drastically improved his 3 point shooting last year, which sometimes does happen to players near or even during their thirties, for some reason—to a team that just flat wins ball games, you add a stand up guy like Antonio McDyess, you add a healthy Manu Ginobili, and one of the best immediate impact draft picks of the draft last year (in Dejuan Blair), to a team that won 54 last year anyway, and it’s not hard to see where the math points.
I still happen to think they’re vulnerable though, in terms of championship potential. There’s this weird phenomenon in sports where a team gets an identity, and it’s so strong an identity that it gets attached to the team rather than the components (players, schemes) that gave it that identity in the first place. This was very much the case with the Spurs last year. They’d always been so good at ball control, holding the reins of the game, and scoring efficiently. But with Manu out and Duncan old they completely s topped being able to score efficiently. So they tried to compensate by having a bunch of three point shooters. But that broke the whole thing---they couldn’t play enough defense, then, and they STILL couldn’t score enough.
Anyhow. This is a very good team, and especially a very good regular season team---but you’re not adding McDyess, R-Jeff,and Blair to the Spurs of six years ago. As a Mavericks fan, I am completely scared of them. Still. Just keep that in mind.
Also, there’s:
3) Denver:
Here’s the thing I think about Denver, and I think it fairly seriously. They are not as good as San Antonio or the Lakers, but there are teams they can absolutely destroy that those two may not. Nobody is as fast, young, and athletic as Denver. Dallas certainly can’t handle them, San Antonio may not be able to either. They can fly and they can shoot the three. In terms of talent and bench they’re just a shade under some of these other teams. But they remain the team that no one wants to play.
San Antonio is a little better at winning games, which is why I put them above Denver, but Denver may be a little more of a championship threat. Wrecking ball of a team.
4) Dallas:
This one’s going to be a long one. Don’t like it? Okay, sure, but I’m the Mavericks Examiner. These things happen.
So, I’m not predicting who will win the championship here, and the reason is that I’m a Dallas sports columnist and I’m a huge fan of this Dallas team. If you’re looking for those kinds of predictions, the Lakers remain a fairly safe bet, as these things go, and so does Orlando and Cleveland and Boston.
Still, I am completely baffled by how low Dallas’ offseason has been rated. Well, not baffled, I know why it happened. It looked like they were going to get Marion AND Gortat, but instead, they just got Marion. It was a let down. What I suppose I would say instead is “that’s stupid”.
First, would you rather have Marion or Richard Jefferson? This is not a hard question. Though they have functionally equivalent lifetime scoring averages, Marion’s the one who scores in ways that are not redundant, which is important. You can get a couple guys to ether to pull an R-Jeff. Not necessarily so, with Marion. Defensively? No contest. Can defend three positions. Rebounding? No contest. Yes, Marion had a down year last year, shuttling between teams that had no use, place, or interest in him. His last two games of the season he went for 34-11 and 25-15. Am I missing something here?
Look. The preferred starting lineup for the Mavs, last season, was as follows Kidd, Terry/Wright/Barea/Green/Me, Howard, Dirk, Dampier. Most of the season, it was something more like Kidd, Terry/Barea, Wright, Dirk, Dampier. In that lineup, there are exactly 1.5 consistent scorers. In the other one, there are theoretically 2.5. Bass and Wright served as the bench.
This year it’s: Kidd, Howard, Marion, Dirk, Gooden, with Dampier, Terry, Barea, the possibly-good-Kris Humphries, Quinton Ross and Tim Thomas. They’ll presumably finish games with Kidd, Terry, Howard, Marion, Dirk. That’s 3 to 4 fine scorers on the court, with a bunch of guys—Gooden, Barea, Thomas, Humphries, who really can give you something off the bench. How is this not tons better?
The other thing, it is generally ignored how much just that one Marion move improves all the rosters the Mavs can throw out there—and remember, this is a team that won 50 games last year, and, if not for another Josh Howard ankle injury and another blown call, might well have been right there with Denver in the semifinals last year. Fast forward a year, and replace Wright with Marion. Fine. But what’s actually going to happen, roster wise, is you’re going to replace Howard with Marion, and Wright with Howard. In a very real way, since you’ve improved immeasurably at two positions, that’s two upgrades, and two two-way players. And now, the Mavs can rebound across the board. Kidd? Above average for a PG in that respect. Howard, above average. Marion, well above average. Dirk, above average. You know?
In the most recent preseason game, against the Wizards, Marion had 26-5-2-3 on 11 of 15 shooting, without the Mavs running plays for him. Very exciting. More exciting, from a long term perspective is that the next two leading scorers were Roddy Beaubois, the deliriously fast French point guard with the great outside shot (14 points, 3 steals), and…Kris Humphries, who scored 15 points in 16 minutes, grabbed 7 boards, and got to the line 7 times.
It’s preseason, obviously. Kris Humphries has been written off, too, I know. However. Humphries is a McDonald’s All-American and spent exactly one year in college—where he made the All-Big Ten First Team and was an Honorable Mention All-American. The first freshman ever to lead the Big Ten in scoring and rebounding in the same season. Lottery draft pick. He is 24. Is it impossible, really, to think he still has some untapped potential? Don’t sleep on him. I’ve been saying this for a month, by the way, but it is still worth noting that in the last several preseason games, in addition to the one mention above, Humphries has gone for 16-9-2 in 21 minutes (5 o-boards, 9 free throws), and 14-9 in 18 minutes.
Drew Gooden, by the way—and who would doubt him—has been quoted as saying that he and Humphries are like two football players going up for the offensive rebounds. I like the enthusiasm.
Anyhow. There are three reasons I picked the Mavs even this low, even though I think they have as good a shot at the Championship as they’ve had in three years. The first, is that they remain old and slow. They still won’t be able to beat the Nuggets. The others are less obvious, and more ominous.
The first is that figuring out this team will take some time. The bench is revamped, the starting five, besides Dirk and Kidd, is either all new or in a new position. Howard will enter the season still recovering from two surgeries, and probably won’t play for the first month—when he does, he’ll be slow. Beaubois will need time to develop, and may not even get there this year at all. This is a vulnerable team, and in all likelihood, as Dirk and Marion start to mesh—that’s right when Howard will show up to throw off the chemistry, as we’ve seen with Andrew Bynum over and over again, for seemingly a decade.
The second is more important. I really am not, and I hate to say it but it’s true—I really am not convinced the Mavericks can handle being really good. I don’t think they can handle winning easily. There are only so many years even the loyalist fans can say it’s all bad luck. There has been spectacular bad luck. Dirk having his only serious injury right before a deciding two games with the Spurs in the semifinals all those years ago, the refs handing the Heat a championship trophy, than manifesting again to steal a game from the Mavericks against the Nuggets last year—but it’s not all bad luck. Or else, no other team relies on luck as much as the Mavericks and are better for it.
But I mean, picture this not entirely ludicrous scenario. As the season goes on, as happened last year, this team gels and the youngsters, specifically Beaubois and Humphries, develop.
Suddenly, come playoffs, what do you have? Why, you have Kidd throwing the ball to Dirk, Howard, and Marion, as offensive a trio of forwards (I know, trio of forwards. But that’s really what they are, after all), Drew Gooden and Damp making some contributions---off the bench you have Jason Terry, a shooter, Roddy Beaubois ,lightning fast, with a killer three point shot, Tim Thomas (boo—but you know), and Kris Humphries to bang inside. Need to go small? Throw in J.J. Barea. Need to play defense? Throw in Quinton Ross. Need someone completely useless, who always looks like they should be playing at the YMCA? Throw in Matt Carroll!
It could certainly happen. This team could be a beast. Marion and Howard can slash and shoot, Dirk can shoot (like no one else can shoot) and sometimes (sometimes) finish around the basket—Gooden can theoretically give this team scoring from the five, Thomas, hate him though I do, can theoretically give them what Matt Carroll has so consistently failed to do (a good three ball), Terry can keep up his old tricks, Barea can keep up his new ones, and Beaubois and Humphries can swoop, shoot, and bruise their way to a serious supplementary punch. That team could compete with anyone in the league. Whether it will…
Worst case, same old same old. Injuries, age, slowness of foot, overall unattractiveness both personal and spiritual. Over it.
5) Portland:
Why don’t I like Portland? I suppose because I look at them and see one great player, and a bunch of guys everyone would like to have as their third and fourth option. I love Portland fans, they’re the most enthusiastic in the world—every one of their guys is an all-star if not an outright hall of famer.
But really, they’re not. Andre Miller is a good addition, but not the best one. Jeff Przybilla has turned into a real defensive force, but he’ll be splitting time, if not losing all of it, to Oden, and we’ll see how well that works. Might still be fine. LaMarcus Aldridge has no excuse for being as mediocre as he is. And after that, it really drops off. I think Rudy is great, but he doesn’t even start (didn’t even start? We’ll see). Nicolas Batum doesn’t score. Steve Blake remains—and this is completely true, I’ve had it verified—Steve Blake.
I’d like to see Roy going for 25 each night instead of his usual 21 or 22, I think that would help a lot. We’ll see.
6) Utah Jazz:
I know. But I’ve always thought the Jazz had too much talent to so consistently fail to show. I mean look, they had to keep Carlos Boozer in the offseason. I feel so bad for them. Whatever will they do with two guys who bang inside, to go along with their oodles of outside shooting.
I know you like Paul Millsap. I do too. But just because Millsap is getting the absolute most out of his talent, and Boozer is getting the least doesn’t mean their effectiveness on the court isn’t still KIND of a draw. And hey, maybe someday, someone will find something Boozer cares about and, I don’t know, hold it hostage or something.
And I love Deron Williams. Tough as nails, great shooter, gets to the hoop.
I mean, really, people. Boozer, Williams,Okur, Millsap, even AK-47---this is not a bad team. Watch out, too, for C.J. Miles. That’s all.
7) Phoenix Suns:
The premier “ once you stick a fork in someone, you forget about them” team. But—and call me crazy if you must—I really don’t think a roster of Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, whoever, whoever, Amare Stoudemire, with Barbosa and Grant Hill to plug in somewhere, is so very bad. You have a good team that narrowly missed the playoffs last year, you add back Amare Stoudemire in a contract year, you add a coach who wants to let them play like they can—there’s a lot to like. I’m not scared of Phoenix like I used to be, they’re too thin. After the players listed above, you start to run into a lot of Dan Dickau, Goran Dragic, kinds of things. And no one wants that. Still, a tough team.
And now, for the big surprise:
8) Golden State Warriors:
Okay, okay. Maybe not. But you have to admit, the only reason not to isn’t talent, or injury concerns, or any of the usual. It’s just MASSIVE DYSFUNCTION. Could be worse, really.
After all. Does anyone have a better collection of young talent? Anthony Morrow, Anthony Randoph. Monta Ellis. Stephen Curry. Andris Biedrins. Devean George.
(wait, what? Why would someone give Devean George a job? Don Nelson, you crack me up.)
Anyhow. They also have Corey Maggette, who has his problems but can always score the rock—all he’ll be asked to do over there. They still, for the moment have Stephen Jackson. They also have guys like Kelenna Azubuike and Acie Law who still have a chance to be good.
THAT’S A LOT OF TALENT.
And yes, okay, so maybe every single one of those guys is a point guard. Or whatever. But if you’ve ever wondered what it’s like to be beaten to death by oompa-loompas (and really, after seeing Willy Wonka at a young age, who hasn’t had that particular nightmare), this will happen.
The Warriors are an anarchy. There are no rules. Only Snake Plisken can stop them.
I would never bet against them. At least the Mavericks definitely won’t be in a position to play them in the first round this year.
Footnotes:
The only obvious exclusion on this list is the Hornets. Blah, blah, blah, you can’t count Chris Paul out, etc. He’s a beast, no question. But let’s be honest. All predictions of the strength of the Hornets last season were predicated on David West remaining very excellent. And he had a good year last year—21 points a game is nothing to sneeze at, and certainly he had some 30 point games and so on. But there are just far too many 14 point games. Last March, for example., he had games of 32, 30, 29, 29, and 40—and finished the month averaging 21.7. That’s not easy to do.
The reason he matters, is because besides West and Paul all Hornets players are figments of our imagination. I mean, who, for example, is Peja Stojakovich without a three point shot? Who is James Posey playing 20 minutes a game? What is a Sean Marks?
Okafor may be huge for them. Or not. I’m not buying, right now.
Plus, they scored less than 70 in two of their last 7 games, including a 121-63 loss in the playoffs. That ain’t cool.
As for Houston, I just don’t know. I’ve never seen a team explode that fast. Devastating for that fan base, and probably unprecedented. Think about it. They started last season with at least the potential for three superstars—and every single one of them is gone, or out next year. Being smart about picking up the Shane Battiers and Luis Scolas of the world makes you easily better than 60% of the GMs out there, but it still only works with some big horses---like Yao, Artest, and the ghost of T-Mac. Daryl Morey is heading for a Billy Beane like revision of opinion, neither one entirely deserved as the initial coronation was not.
Let’s all take a moment of silence here, by the way, for the great Ralph Wiley who once wrote a column referring to T-Mac as T-Muad’dib, in one of the most imaginative sports columns of all time.
Besides that, the Grizz continue to make terrible decisions as often as possible, the Timberwolves are better than people think but not that good, OKC reminds me a lot of a young Portland, although James Harden, like Kevin Durant, is awesome—and I don’t think we really need to talk about Sacto.
Sorry, Sacto.
