The end of the Cuban embargo?

April 23, 1:20 PMImmigrant Community ExaminerWilfredo Rodriguez-Padilla

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Photograph by Dirk van der Made from Wikimedia Commons.

During the fifth Summit of the Americas, President Barack Obama announced a “new beginning” with Cuba. Could this be the end of the embargo? Even though there's no definite answer, the statements and the lift of restrictions to Cuban Americans on travel and remittances constitute a huge shift in rhetoric and policy from Washington. 

Sooner or later, the embargo has to end in order for Cuba to change. Proposing to end the policy seemed naïve just a few years ago, but now it increasingly looks like the only way to solve the most enduring crisis in the Americas. 

A recent national telephone poll revealed that a majority of Cuban and Cuban American adults – 64 percent – support the changes in policy announced last week that will lift all restrictions for Cubans in the US on travel and remittances to the Caribbean island. Not only is the community in favor of the steps taken by President Obama, but 67 percent of it supports lifting travel restrictions for all Americans.

On the other side, the same group remains split when it comes to the embargo itself. Forty-two percent believe it should be continued while 43 percent believe it should be suspended.  The survey by the Miami based Democratic firm, Bendixen & Associates, interviewed 400 Cubans and Cuban Americans in Florida and New Jersey (which, according to the US Census, have a 10 percent or higher Cuban American density).

The survey's results are surprising because this particular voting block tends to be pro-Republican. The shift might come from younger Cuban Americans and recent arrivals that have a different view of the embargo and supported Obama during his campaign. The same survey found that the president received surprisingly high ratings from the Cuban community, 67 percent gave him a favorable rating while only 20 percent gave him an unfavorable one.

While it is clear the mentality of the Cubans in the US is changing, we can find contradictions when we look at their recent voting patterns.  Three pro-embargo Miami Republican members of Congress were re-elected in November even though Obama garnered an estimated 35 percent of the Cuban American vote in South Florida. All three Republicans backed strict sanctions against the Castro rule and criticized Obama’s moves to ease restrictions over the last couple of weeks.

Individuals spread ideas. Media and diplomacy only do so much. Without the help of the embargo, the Castro regime would have collapsed because of those personal interactions.  The conversations over a domino game at the plaza with a visitor can be more powerful than the debates between Cuban and American diplomats.  Once change happens at that personal level, there is no oppressive apparatus that can keep a revolt from spreading. The regime would have lost its legitimacy and eventually its power.