KND Report: Kawakami defeats a slumping Matsuzaka

June 20, 3:26 AMAsian-American Sports ExaminerMichael Street

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This may be the last time that Dice-K hands off the ball
as a starter (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

As many problems as Kenshin Kawakami has had adjusting to MLB this season, Daisuke Matsuzaka has had many more.

In eight starts, Dice-K has a 1-5 record with a 8.23 ERA. He has given up more than three ER in seven of those starts, surrendering 8 HRs and 59 hits in 35 IP, with 34 Ks and 18 BBs.

Those peripherals are putrid, showing you he deserves every bit of that ERA. His WHIP is 2.20 (1.40 is the league average), his HR/9 is 2.05 (league average is 1.1), and his BB/9 is 4.6 (3.5 is the league average). The only good things are his K/9 (8.7 vs. 6.8 AL avg.) and his K/BB (1.9 vs. AL average of 1.94).

His only win came against Detroit a few weeks back, when he gave up just a run in 5 IP, but even in that start the Tigers collected 6 H and 3 BB.

He spent a few weeks on the DL for a tired shoulder just before that, but the effect seemed to be short-lived.

Kawakami, on the other hand, has overcome early struggles to put together an excellent string of starts. Over his last nine starts, he's given up 3 ER or less in all of them, with a 3-3 record, mostly due to Atlanta's poor run support.

He's put up a 3.40 ERA in that time, with 48 H, 36 Ks and 17 BBs in 47.2 IP, plus just 2 HRs. That speaks of excellent peripherals—compare his 1.37 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9, and 3.2 BB/9 to Dice-Ks numbers above. His 6.8 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB are near to Dice-K's ratios, but overall, clearly Kawakami's season is far better.

This was proven tonight, when the two met in interleague play for what might have been a pitching duel in a parallel universe. Instead, Dice-K continued his horrible decline, while Kawakami continued to improve, and the Braves ended up atop the Red Sox, 8-2.

Dice-K faced trouble from the very first pitch, which Nate McLouth promptly parked in the right field seats. Clearly, the longball has been a big problem this year for Matsuzaka.

Walks have been his other problem, and they hurt him in the first inning, too. When Yuni Escobar singled and Chipper Jones doubled, Dice-K deliberately walked McCann to load the bases and set up a force play at home. But then he walked Garret Anderson on four straight pitches, forcing in the second run for Atlanta.

He settled down after that for the next two innings, and Kawakami kept the pressure on by retiring ten of Boston's first twelve in order. Jason Bay reached on a ground rule double in the second, and Dustin Pedroia reached in the third when Escobar threw wide of the bag.

Then, in the fourth, Dice-K got two quick outs before walking Kelly Johnson on a 3-2 pitch. McLouth also worked to a full count before banging a double off the Green Monster, scoring Johnson. McLouth scored when Escobar ripped a single to right, and Dice-K was four runs down before getting Chipper Jones to fly out to end the inning.

Kawakami walked Jason Bay in Boston's half of the fourth, but got three flyouts to put down the meat of the Red Sox order. Dice-K started the fifth, but Terry Francona yanked him after Dice-K gave up back-to-back doubles to Brian McCann and Garrett Anderson to start the inning.

Kawakami didn't run into trouble until the sixth inning. With a six-run lead, he walked J.D. Drew on four straight, allowed Kevin Youkilis to reach on a fielder's choice, and then gave up a two-run shot over the Green Monster to Jason Bay. He struck out Big Papi to end the sixth, and Peter Moylan relieved him in the seventh.

Going forward, it's clear that Kawakami is past his early problems. He's not dominating, but he has flashes of dominance, and certainly has been learning the NL hitters. He's remarked before that one of the problems he faced was not only learning new hitters, but learning 14 teams' worth, instead of just 6 teams. This is surely a sign that the learning curve is starting to straighten out for him.

As for Dice-K, it's hard to say. With John Smoltz coming back, he may find himself in the bullpen, a bad place for such a huge investment to be. Still, he might work out his problems there, or perhaps get the rest he needs. One explanation for his struggles is the World Baseball Classic, where he pitched well, but might have worn himself out in preparation.

Or it could be that he's just turned into a huge bust, which would be awful news for Asian sports fans, as well as NPB pitchers. Think of how MLB's attitude would be different if Ichiro had followed up his ROY/MVP 2001 season by hitting .200.

That's pretty much what Dice-K is doing, and if he ends up as a $100M bullpen middle reliever, few Japanese pitchers are going to see that kind of payday again. He's just one guy, but he has the potential to alter the future of NPB-MLB relations.