
Contrary to popular belief, you don't have to know much about college basketball to win your office pool. For God's sake, my little sister has won her office pool three years straight and she picks teams based on their mascots. Just an hour of research at the end of the season can make your brackets unbustable.
First, clip out the large bracket from you local paper. It's important that the lettering in the bracket is big enough for you to read without squinting. You want to be able to really visualize the set up of all 65 teams.
Secondly, go online and figure out which teams are entering the NCAA Tournament on a hot streak.Then break down these teams into two categories - those that went on a streak simply to make the tournament, and those that have always been quality teams and are simply coalescing at the right time of the season. You can throw out the first type of teams (example, Georgia two years ago) as they've spent their energy just getting to the tournament and will proceed no further. It's the second type of team that will make a deep run, the team that performed admirably during the regular season but was upset in their conference tournament.
Pick a few upset teams that you feel match up well with their first, and even second round opponents. But don't go overboard. Generally speaking, the seeding is accurate. Upsets are a big deal because they happen rarely so don't get upset-happy.
Look at where the games are being played and lean toward the hometown team, especially with some of the more even match-ups.
No. 1 seeds don't lose before the Sweet 16. Pick accordingly.
When a team from a major conference is playing a team from a mid-major, go with the team from the major conference. It's not the mid-majors can't beat their big-time opponents, it's just that more often than not, they don't.
Duke won't win it all, at least not next season or the season after that.
The deeper the team, the longer they'll last in the Tournament. Last season, North Carolina had the deepest bench in the Tournament and won the whole thing. The more games that are played, the more the bench players matter.
Free throw percentage is as good a way as any to predict late round games. Chances are the game will come down to the wire and the team that hits its free throws will prevail.
If all else fails, go ask the sports fanatic in your office who he is picking, and then choose the other team. The more you watch sports the more subject you are to the pitfalls of popular reasoning.