The Greg Paulus Dilemma

October 20, 3:52 PMCollege Sports ExaminerJacob Osterhout

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Can Paulus hold onto his starting spot?

There are lots of rumors swirling around that Duke senior point guard Greg Paulus is in the process of losing his starting job to sophomore Nolan Smith.

Seth Davis pondered the issue last Friday and The Big Lead all but declared it a done deal in a post today.

Regardless of TBL's assertions, Coach K has yet to make a decision so let's ponder the pro's and con's of both Paulus and Smith as Duke's point guard.

Physically, they are equals. Paulus stands at 6-foot-1, 185 lbs., while Smith is a little taller and skinnier at 6-foot-2, 180 lbs.

Their numbers from the 2007-2008 season, in which Paulus was a junior and Smith a freshman, also average out pretty evenly.

Greg Paulus - Averaged 11.4 points, 3.2 assists and 27.7 minutes of playing time; .41 points per minute; 1.98 A/T; .053 steals per minute.

Nolan Smith - Averaged 5.9 points, 1.3 assists and 14.7 minutes of playing time; .40 points per minute; .92 A/T; .036 steals per minute.

Paulus comes out on top for in both the assist to turnover ratio and the steals per minute category. This last stat is surprising since Smith is considered a better on-the-ball defender, but maybe more steals are generated away from the ball.

So who is better on the fast break? Probably Smith since his pressure defense will generate more fast break opportunities and he can finish better in the lane than Paulus.

But from downtown, Paulus is far superior to Smith, nailing .423 of his threes as compared to Smith's .386.

In the end, each player brings their own strengths to the starting line-up and it will come down to whether Coach K is looking to sustain leadership or develop potential. Paulus is one of the captains for the Blue Devils this season and has three years of playing experience. Smith, on the other hand, has the potential to be far superior to Paulus at the point guard position, but he needs playing time to grow.

The practices leading up to the season opener will no doubt sway Coach K's decision, and at the annual Blue-White scrimmage it seemed like Smith made a strong case. According to The News & Observer:

But Smith appeared ready to push into the starting lineup after leading the team he played for, first White, then Blue, to victory. It was only Duke's second practice of the season but coach Mike Krzyzewski acknowledged Smith is making that kind of push with the way he's playing.

It's hard to see Coach K benching his starting point guard for the last three seasons and senior captain in favor of a talented sophomore, but stranger things have happened. A conservative bet says that Paulus is the starter to begin the season, but when the Blue Devils struggle, and they will struggle at some point, expect to see Smith in the starting lineup.