NBA fantasy basketball--All-Star centers for 2009

April 24, 9:58 AMFantasy Basketball ExaminerBruce Allen

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Data from fanball.com; chart by the author.

For years, teams wishing to contend for an NBA title had to start with a major presence in the pivot.  Starting with Russell and Chamberlain and continuing through Kareem, Willis Reed,  Hakeem Olajuwon, Robert Parrish and Shaq, a dominating big man was one of the key building blocks for success.

In the immortal words of Inspector Jacques Clouseau of the Surete, "Not anymore."  There are perhaps half a dozen capable centers in the NBA, and the emphasis has clearly shifted to hammering power forwards, lightning-quick point guards and all-world swing players named Kobe and LeBron.

This past season was worse than most, in that two of the top three centers, Andrew Bynum and Iron Man, played roughly half a season each.  Nene ranks as high as he does mostly because his cap number was so low, lowest of the ten players ranked.  His production for the season was bell-shaped, low early and late, and better in mid-year.  The fact that he is the top-ranked center in my salary-weighted algorithm suggests how far the position has declined.

Brook Lopez, The Good Twin, played all 82 games and had an outstanding rookie year.  With Devin Harris feeding him in the post, and few other offensive options beyond a declining Vince Carter, he will do well for the next two seasons, and very well once he gets the heck out of New Jersey.  Al Horford showed flashes of brilliance, and figures to continue to improve on a Hawks team with an emerging front line that includes Josh Smith and Marvin Williams.  And Superman, Defensive Player of the Year, is only 23, one of the few great centers playing today.

Beyond Howard, things slim down considerably.  Shaq's best years are WAY behind him.  Andris Biedrins has injury issues and is, on his best days, a one-dimensional rebounder.  Chairman Yao is the softest 7'6" center in the world, and Joke Him Noah is lucky to have made the list at all--notice how far below Yao he is in the driving Fantasy Power Index number.

Who figures to make this list in the next several seasons?  David Lee, for one, although he is something of a tweener.  Greg Oden, once he learns how to avoid piling up a foul a minute.  Brad Miller, if he can move Noah out of the starting position in Chicago.  Chris Kaman, if he gets his health problems sorted out.  Kendrick Perkins?  Doubtful.  Roy Hibbert?  Possibly.  Andrea Bargnani?  No--he's a tall shooting guard.  Andrew Bogut?  Not until he solves his back problems.  Tyson Chandler?  Unlikely.  NBA teams in the early part of the 21st century will continue to be happy if they can locate centers that will rebound, block a few shots, clog the lane, and occasionally tip in the misses from their 2's, 3's and 4's.