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If the NBA fantasy season started tomorrow...
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Suppose the NBA season were starting tomorrow. Aargh--we would need to submit our lineup for Week 1 today! Who would we roster today (a month in advance) if we had to go into the season based exclusively on last year’s data, and our expectations from rookies and fantasy faces in new places? No preseason games, no final roster moves, nothing. As fantasy players, we are momentarily conjoined in our practical ignorance. In the NBA, history is not always a good teacher. Each year has breakouts and busts.
When in doubt, go with the selfish player on the bad team.
Here’s what we can learn looking at the schedule:
Only Milwaukee has four games in Week 1; plenty of teams only play twice. I plan to roster 3 Bucks in Week 1, and never again.
Starting in Week 2, Boston, Utah and Sacramento have a lot of blue on the schedule—consecutive 4-game weks. Boston and Utah each play twice in Week 1, so I want to roster from them in Week 2.
Teams with two 4-game weeks in a row beginning in Week 2 include: Charlotte, Dallas, Detroit, Phoenix and Sacramento. Since Phoenix and Sacramento also play 3 games in Week 1, I will roster several players from these teams, and hope to keep them on the roster for the first 3 weeks.
Let’s start with centers. There are so few of them that are worth anything. Having to roster 3 centers each week is a burden, and I’ve never used one as one of my “swing” players. Back in the olden days, when Shaq could still play, he was an automatic. These days, you have few choices. These include:
Dwight Howard ORL Automatic when playing 4 games
Yao Ming HOU Automatic “ “ “ “
Al Jefferson MIN Automatic “ “ “ “
Chris Kaman LAC
Andrew Bogut MIL
Brad Miller SAC
Andrew Bynum LAK
Z-Man CLE
Tyson Chandler NOH
Bogut is in the Week 1 lineup because he plays 4 games. Howard and Al Jefferson are in because they play 3 and are a threat for 40 FP on any night. Yao has 4 games in Week 2, so I’m planning to roster him the following week. Howard and Jefferson each play 3 again in Week 2, so I’m maybe shipping one of them out in favor of Kendrick Perkins in Boston or Okur in Utah. BTW, Perkins is probably going to be a stud in salary cap leagues—cheap.
At forward, we will begin with Richard Jefferson in Milwaukee, again because he plays 4 times. Amare in Phoenix and LeBron each play 3 times and are automatics. Elton Brand will get plenty of touches in Philly, so he’s on. Rising stars include Aldridge in Portland and Al Thornton in LAC, so they’re on. The designated “crafty veteran” will be Kenyon Martin, whose knees appear to be fine, for the first time since, like, forever.
Not so fast, Mr. Examiner, you’re thinking. That’s seven (7) forwards. You’re only allowed 5. What’s up with that?
My team includes two “swing” players, who can be from any of the 3 positions. Since it’s the forwards that provide the most scoring for your salary dollar, I usually end up with 3 centers, 5 guards and 7 forwards. That’s how I roll.
At guard, the Milwaukee delegate is Mr. Tyronn Lue, who will apparently be running the point. He is the first of several low-round value players I am using at guard in Week 1. (Again, as a gentle reminder, I play in a salary cap league, and must be forever conscious of what I’m paying these guys.) The main firepower will come from Wade in Miami, Durant in OKC and Kevin Martin in SAC. One of my picks to have a breakout year is Mike Conley in MEM, who played high school and AAU ball with Greg Oden here in Indianapolis and is going to be good in the league.
Here’s Week 1, for those of you keeping score at home:
PLAYER POSITION TEAM #GAMES
DWIGHT HOWARD C ORL 3
ANDREW BOGUT C MIL 4
AL JEFFERSON C MIN 3
RICHARD JEFFERSON F MIL 4
LEBRON JAMES F CLE 3
AMARE STOUDEMIRE F PHO 3
LIONEL ALDRIDGE F POR 3
AL THORNTON F LAC 3
KENYON MARTIN F DEN 3
ELTON BRAND F PHI 3
MIKE CONLEY G MEM 3
DWYANE WADE G MIA 3
KEVIN MARTIN G SAC 3
KEVIN DURANT G OKC 3
TYRONN LUE G MIL _4__
48
FB_CAP_$59.96
* * *
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basketball ·
salary cap ·
Value ·
Guards ·
Centers ·
Forwards ·
Mock Lineup NBA Week 1
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