While rummaging through the cobwebs in my brain for offseason article ideas, I was reminded of a recent question posted on the Southern Illinois forum Salukitalk.net by a poster named Jimmy Haze, who uses the moniker "#1 Fan" on the site. His submission didn't get much publicity, but I liked the idea enough to get Jimmy's permission to fire up the thought machine around the league with a modified version of his original notion.
If all of the players in the Missouri Valley were thrown into a player pool and a fantasy-style draft was held, how would it look? All freshman are ineligible, because we simply don't know enough about most of them to make a fair assessment of their talents.
Would teams opt for experience over potential? Would they take the best starting five regardless of position? Would all ten coaches play nice together in the same board room?
This is part one in a series that will analyze the top-50 players in a five-round draft. The draft order was determined by reversing the order of finish in the conference during the 2008-09 season.
1st pick overall – Missouri State – P'Allen Stinnett – 6'3" G (Jr.) – With two nearly identical, impressive seasons under his belt, Stinnett combines exceptional talent with untapped potential, and Coach Cuonzo Martin couldn't pass up having stability at the shooting guard position for the next two seasons. Stinnett will have to improve his outside shooting to ascend to the level of the elite, but with a former college sharpshooter blowing the whistle, he'll have excellent guidance as he takes the next step to superstardom.
2nd pick overall – Drake – Osiris Eldridge – 6'3" G (Sr.) – Coach Mark Phelps passed on potential in favor of trying to win the league immediately and using Eldridge as a recruiting tool. Likely the preseason Player of the Year selection, Eldridge recently withdrew his name from the NBA Draft after participating in professional camps and workouts. He has the most complete game of anyone in the league, and the extra year in college will help his draft chances in 2010. A season of 20 points, seven rebounds and four assists per night isn't out of the question, and as long as he keeps his health, he'll be the crème de la crème in the Valley this year.
3rd pick overall – Indiana State – Kevin Dillard – 5'11" G (So.) – Dillard is the league's premier young floor general, and he had a sensational freshman season that gives Coach Kevin McKenna strong leadership at the point for the next three years. The Missouri Valley Freshman of the Year ranked third in assists per game (4.2) and shot 45.2% from three-point distance. Dillard needs to improve his individual defense, but he has the potential to be one of the premier combo guards in the country by the time he graduates.
4th pick overall – Wichita State – Toure' Murry – 6'4" G (So.) – Coach Gregg Marshall was tickled when Murry fell, and didn't think twice about gambling with a player just 34 games into his college career. He couldn't have done much better than Murry, who showed the ability to take over games last year as a freshman. Murry averaged 11.0 points per game in his rookie campaign, and will be the center of a young Shocker core group that should grow with Gregg into a solid outfit.
5th pick overall – Evansville – Kwadzo Ahelegbe – 6'2" G (Jr.) – The foremost authority on defense returning this season, Ahelegbe gives Coach Marty Simmons a stopper in the backcourt who can also provide some offensive punch. He doesn't possess a great jump shot, but Ahelegbe poured in 11.8 points per game last year on just 8.8 field-goal attempts per night. He has an excellent basketball brain, and will help the Aces on both ends of the floor for the next two years.
6th pick overall – Southern Illinois – Kyle Weems – 6'6" F (So.) – The first non-guard off the board was the league's second-best overall freshman last season, averaging 10.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. Weems improved dramatically as the season progressed, posting an average of 6.2 boards per night in league play and registering four double-doubles after January 20. The Topeka, Kansas native has tremendous upside, and should wipe the glass clean for Coach Chris Lowery for three solid seasons.
7th pick overall – Bradley – Andrew Warren – 6'5" G (Jr.) – Coach Jim Les brushed aside injury concerns with Warren and selected the wing to lead his offense. Warren is one of the chief offensive talents in the league when healthy, but missed the entire 2008-09 season with a foot injury. He averaged 13.2 points per game during the 2007-08 campaign, but it remains to be seen how the lingering effects of the injury will hamper him. This is clearly the risk/reward pick of the first round, and Les was willing to take that chance.
8th pick overall – Illinois State – Josh Young – 6'1" G (Sr.) – Just the second senior selected, Young has had a stellar career in the Missouri Valley as an incredibly consistent scorer. He features career averages of 14.0 points and 1.1 steals per game, and shot 84.0% from the free-throw line in 2008-09. Young's three-point shooting regressed some last year, but he is still a feared deep threat and can tickle the net from anywhere on the floor. The Lawton, Oklahoma product has most likely reached the limits of his potential, but he'll have an excellent senior year, both as a scorer and a locker room leader for coach Tim Jankovich.
9th pick overall – Creighton - Adam Koch – 6'8" F (Sr.) – Koch joined Eldridge as the only juniors on the All-MVC First Team in 2008-09, after averaging 12.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. The senior from Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin posted inconsistent numbers last year, scoring 18 or more points in a game nine times, but suffering through ten games of 7 or less points. Koch has had just one above-average season, so there is still hope that he'll evolve into a 16-7-4 player this season. At worst, Coach Dana Altman has a post presence for one season that must be respected.
10th pick overall – Northern Iowa – Harry Marshall – 6'0" G (Sr.) – Marshall is the final pick in a round dominated by guards. The Bowling Green, Indiana native is quickly becoming one of the best scorers in the Missouri Valley, as he averaged 14.3 points to go with 4.3 assists per contest during league play last season. Marshall has the potential to be a 15-20 point per game scorer if he has help around him, including an inside presence. His defense has improved, and he should provide Coach Ben Jacobson with a high quality of play in his last collegiate season.