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Strategy session: Is Somalia the next Afghanistan?
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A senior American commander of the Somalian Islamic militant group al-Shabab. (AP Photo/Intel Center)
Somalia: riddled with pirates, terrorists and starving children. Somalia: in a continual struggle to achieve even the most basic definition of legitimate statehood. Somalia: threatened by local and international forces beyond its capacity to confront. Twenty years ago this nation would be left to disintegrate in the world’s backwaters of failed states; in despair, tragic and forgotten. Today’s world disallows such a situation. This is not due to any international moral conviction to do right. Ask Darfur about that. In the post 9-11 world places like Somalia are thrust into the consciousness of policymakers in the West. From the volatile mix of lawlessness, ideological extremism and despair, a malignant ethos is born that can threaten the most powerful nations in the world. Thus, the Obama Administration eyes Somalia nervously, asking itself: Is Somalia the next Afghanistan?
On September 11th 2001 the world was born anew. There had been cries from sentries within the Bush Administration that the United States was hurtling toward tragedy. Back then, however, the prevailing logic was that it was impossible for such a threat, one conceived on the hardscrabble frontiers of a seemingly medieval crust of land, to be successful. How could the United States of America fall victim to a pious group of unsophisticated extremists? This failure of imagination proved tragic. Shattered was the myth of the Rocky nation, one impervious to attack, the nation that stared down the Soviet Union and demanded that walls be torn down. A new world was forced upon the United States; a world where horrific attacks could materialize from far away places, from determined men who flew no flags and acted with a calculated sobriety that was frightening. Fifty years of military investment and strategy crumbled with the towers in New York. And America vowed never again.
Following September 11th the United States revamped its foreign policy to be mindful of failed states like Afghanistan. Threats would not gather in lawless lands where extreme men with extreme vision filled the void left by nations stricken by civil war and poverty. Today, Somalia shows signs eerily similar to the ones ignored in Afghanistan almost a decade ago. The country, like Afghanistan, has seen civil war, foreign invasion and endured such extreme poverty that many there yearn for a guiding force to deliver its citizens from despair. Militant Islamic groups are far from short on guiding principles.
Currently one such group, al-Shabab (Arabic for the youth), is in control of vast swaths of Somali territory. The leaders of al-Shabab are remnants of a short lived Islamic government that won control of Somalia in a bloody civil war and that was eventually ousted by American backed Ethiopian forces. Though their goals seem to be focused strictly on realizing their national objectives they are certain to be cognizant of the forces that led to their being deposed two years ago. Elevating the perception of a threat to the United States is the number of Somali-Americans who have traveled to the group to receive training and to participate in the local conflict. Though the group has not made overt threats to the United States, it is worrisome nonetheless to have US citizens travel to Somalia for training and to return with uncertain objectives. Furthermore, al-Shabab has known contacts with al-Qaeda, a relationship that does not ease US policymakers.
A policy that places great emphasis on denying terrorist organizations the sanctuary of a failed state does not transfer from theory to practice easily. By the standards set when the United States vowed never again, Somalia would appear to be the example for which the policy was written. Criminal gangs control its waters and ideological extremists control its land. The vast amounts of money made by pirates could easily be enriching Islamic militants. No central government exists that can challenge either the power of the pirates or the extremists. Uncertainty abounds. The reality, however, is that the US cannot invade every uncertain threat that presents. For every invasion of a Muslim land will exponentially increase potential future threats. Certainly the US must act in the face of danger but the natural opacity surrounding failed states makes identifying clear threats unlikely. This is the situation facing the Obama Administration today. They risk taking too little action and exposing the United States or its allies to another potential attack. In turn, they risk escalating their activities in Somalia only to ensure the internationalization of the threat from al-Shabab, and providing another example for those who claim the US is at war with Islam. Hard reality thus confronts a President committed to engagement with the Muslim world. President Obama is correct to pursue such a strategy but must not let it paralyze him when confronted with emerging threats. The question he must ask himself then is: Is Somalia the next Afghanistan?
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