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Rasmussen poll on drop in health care support worthless
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Thefirstpost.co.uk
Pollsters are generally not the best and the brightest. Their methodology is questionable to say the least and the questions they ask are designed more to give news organizations something to talk about than to learn anything substantial.
During the Democratic primaries last year the most unreliable poll in a business of unreliability was the Rasmussen poll. As one example: Rasmussen had Barrack Obama ahead by 1 pt in the California primary. Their margin of error was 3 points. Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in a landslide,, losing by 13 points. Other Rasmussen polls during the Democratic primaries were just as wrong ( Ohio comes immediately to mind)
Rasmussen's recent polling on health care reform showing only 38% support the health care reform bill is not only unreliable, many of the questions that are asked are, in a word, stupid. They are either nonsensical asking questions no one has the answers to, or so slanted as to make a true assessment of public opinion impossible.
For example, Rasmussen claims on its web site that support for the Democrat health plan with the public option "has fallen to its lowest level since June". It should be noted that in June, the CBS News poll showed 72% of Americans supported the health care plan and public option with 57% willing to pay higher taxes to pay for it. CNN's poll showed 66% supported the public option.If Rasmussen showed low level support for the public option in June they were the only ones. And given their track record thats very possible.
The biggest problem with Rasmussen's polls are the sheer idiocy of the questions they ask. On health care most if is all speculative, asking people to speculate on things most of the respondents have no qualifications on which to intelligently speculate, which doesn't stop Rassmussen from asking or the respondents answering. In some cases its Rasmussen that supplies baseless speculation and then asks people their opinions.
To show the sheer corruption of Rasmussen polling consider this: Rasmussen reports that a Washington Post poll shows that 57% support the public option. But Rasmussen considers that support unreliable based on their own polling coming to this conclusion based on a specific question:
"people are strongly opposed to the public option if they think it could lead to employers dropping the insurance they provide their employees".
Why is Rasmussen polling such a sheer speculative question? What evidence do they have or what provisions in the bill can they quote that would lead someone to conclude this is a possibility? The answer is none. But that doesn't stop Rasmussen from asking people their opinions on something that right now is a fantasy.And then trying to say that support for the public option is down based on the answer.
To say that is a loaded question is understatement. And to conclude that the Washington Post poll showing 57% support of the public option is somehow soft by the results of Rasmussen's slanted question is as good a reason as any to dismiss the Rasmussen poll.
But they wont be dismissed because cable networks and lazy journalists scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for things to talk about will talk about it. Or because they think its controversial and they want controversy.
But it has no credibility. Another recent Rasmussen poll predicated their question on "based on the language in the senate health care reform bill, do you believe....."
The bill is over 2000 pages. I'm willing to bet that not one of the respondents in the Rasmussen poll read the bill. And Rasmussen never asks first, "did you read the bill"? They simply ask, "based on the language in the bill..." which means that every answer given by every respondent ( most of which was negative to the health care bill) is a lie and worthless since they didn't read the bill but answered anyway. That doesn't stop Rassmussen either.
AnotherRasmussen question asks:
If the health care reform plan passes, will the quality of health care get better, worse, or stay about the same?
Now, really. Do they know? Can they know? Is the sample of respondents fortune tellers? How worthless are the answers when they not only don't know, they know they don't know. But Rasmussen wants their opinions anyway.
The fact is, if one were to consider the experiences of countries with universal plans the answer is, it would get better. But Rasmussen doesnt want facts he wants opinion and uninformed opinion. Its utter and baseless speculation asking people who really have no clue as to what the reality would actually be to give their opinions. Its like asking if they believe there is life on other planets? Who cares what they believe? All the matters is whats true.
Rasmussen has also released a tracking poll showing an all time low in Obama's approval. Other pollsters have also shown a big drop in Obama's approval ratings and it coincides with Obama's handling on many issues. But Rasmussen still remains the most unreliable of all polls and while every other poll shows a predicatable and understandable drop in Obama's approval, the least credible is Rasmussen.
How worthless is Rasmussen's poll on healthcare? So worthless they practically admit it themselves. On their website reporting on the results they include this disclaimer:
"Next week’s Monday morning update will give an indication of whether these numbers reflect a trend of growing opposition or are merely statistical noise."
Its interesting that Rasmussen elected to release this poll knowing that it could be "merely statistical noise". On an issue as contentious as health care, one would think that a responsible pollster would, if they believed there was a possibility that their poll was not an accurate reflection would simply withold it until they had more reliable information. But not "We Want Attention" Rasmussen.
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